“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设能否提升城市碳解锁效率？

Does “Made in China 2025” Pilot Demonstration City Construction Can Improve Urban Carbon Unlocking Efficiency

摘要: 随着全球气候变化的加剧和环境问题的日益突出，中国经济正面临由传统碳基技术路径向绿色低碳经济转型的重大挑战。当前，“碳锁定”效应已成为制约低碳转型的关键障碍，如何有效破解“碳锁定”、实现系统性“碳解锁”，已成为中国乃至全球经济可持续发展的重要课题。本文将“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设作为一项准自然实验，采用2010~2023年中国283个城市的面板数据，运用渐进双重差分法等分析试点政策对城市碳解锁效率的影响。研究发现，目标政策实施显著提升了城市的碳解锁水平，这一结论在经过一系列检验后仍然成立。不仅如此，示范城市设立的碳解锁效率提升效应的发挥还会因城市特征的不同而存在差异。其中，非资源型、东中部、处于城市群、能源消费低的城市，其影响效应整体较为突出。与此同时，政府科技支持、能源消费转型、产业结构升级是试点政策提升碳解锁效率的三个关键渠道。进一步分析发现，试点政策对与本地邻近的非示范城市的碳解锁效率具有正向溢出效应。本研究为试点城市的经验总结与推广提供了实证依据。

Abstract: With the intensification of global climate change and the increasingly prominent environmental problems, China’s economy is facing the major challenge of transforming from the traditional carbon-based technology path to a green low-carbon economy. At present, the “carbon lock-in” effect has become a key obstacle restricting the low-carbon transformation. How to effectively break the “carbon lock-in” and realize the systematic “carbon unlock” has become an important issue for the sustainable development of China and even the global economy. This paper takes the “made in China 2025” pilot demonstration city construction as a quasi-natural experiment, uses the panel data of 283 cities in China from 2010 to 2023, and uses the staggered difference-in-differences model to analyze the impact of pilot policies on urban carbon unlocking efficiency. The study found that the implementation of the target policy significantly improved the carbon unlocking level of the city, which is still true after a series of tests. Not only that, the carbon unlocking efficiency improvement effect of the demonstration city will be different due to the different characteristics of the city. Among them, non-resource-based cities, cities in the East and central regions, cities in urban agglomerations and cities with low energy consumption have more prominent overall impact effects. At the same time, government science and technology support, energy consumption transformation and industrial structure upgrading are the three key channels for the pilot policy to improve the efficiency of carbon unlocking. Further analysis shows that the pilot policy has a positive spillover effect on the carbon unlocking efficiency of non-demonstration cities adjacent to the local area. This study provides an empirical basis for the experience summary and promotion of pilot cities.