金融稳定保障体系下防范化解地方政府债务风险路径研究

Research on the Path of Preventing and Resolving Local Government Debt Risks under the Financial Stability Safeguard System

摘要: 地方政府隐性债务是当前财政风险与金融风险交叉共振的核心风险点，地方融资平台作为隐性债务主要载体，债务链条嵌套复杂、风险传染性强，极易冲击区域乃至全国金融稳定。健全金融稳定保障体系是防范系统性风险的重要制度安排，二者存在紧密的治理关联。本文基于预算软约束理论，揭示隐性担保预期如何软化地方与金融机构的预算约束，驱动债务风险在财政与金融体系间累积与传导。通过回顾国内地方债务的四阶段演化历程，剖析显性与隐性债务的风险分化逻辑及其双向传导机制；立足金融稳定保障基金、宏观审慎监管、财政金融协同、融资平台市场化转型四大支柱，系统梳理当前化债举措面临的现实堵点。本文构建了“风险预警–协同处置–长效治理”的三层闭环路径，并提出完善全口径债务监测、创新市场化化债工具、理顺央地财权事权、推动平台分类转型、强化监管问责等配套建议，为构建地方债务长效治理机制提供理论支撑与参考。

Abstract: Hidden debt of local governments is currently a core risk point where fiscal risk and financial risk intersect and reinforce each other. Local government financing platforms, as the primary vehicles for hidden debt, feature complex nested debt chains and strong risk contagion, which can easily impact regional and even national financial stability. Strengthening the financial stability safeguard system is a crucial institutional arrangement for preventing systemic risks, and there exists a close governance nexus between the two. Grounded in the theory of soft budget constraints, this paper reveals how implicit guarantee expectations soften the budget constraints of both local governments and financial institutions, thereby driving the accumulation and transmission of debt risks across the fiscal and financial systems. By reviewing the four-stage evolutionary trajectory of local debt in China, it analyzes the risk differentiation logic between explicit and implicit debt and their two-way transmission mechanisms. Based on the four pillars—the financial stability safeguard fund, macroprudential regulation, fiscal-financial coordination, and market-oriented transformation of financing platforms—the paper systematically examines the practical bottlenecks confronting current debt-resolution measures. This paper constructs a three-tier closed-loop pathway of “risk warning, coordinated resolution, and long-term governance”, and proposes supporting recommendations, including improving comprehensive debt monitoring, innovating market-based debt-resolution tools, rationalizing the fiscal authority and expenditure responsibilities between central and local governments, promoting classified transformation of platforms, and strengthening regulatory accountability. These efforts aim to provide theoretical support and practical reference for establishing a sustainable long-term governance mechanism for local debt.