基于空间杜宾模型的数字经济对碳排放空间溢出效应研究——以湖南省为例

Research on the Spatial Spillover Effect of Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions Based on the Spatial Durbin Model—A Case Study of Hunan Province

摘要: 在“双碳”战略与区域协调发展背景下，数字经济发展成为驱动碳减排的重要抓手。本文选取2014~2022年湖南省14个地级市面板数据，运用熵权TOPSIS法测算数字经济与碳排放综合指数，依托邻接空间权重矩阵构建空间杜宾模型，检验数字经济对碳排放的本地作用与空间溢出效应。研究结果如下：1) 湖南省碳排放存在显著正向空间集聚，数字经济本地主效应、空间交互项均显著为负，兼具本地减排与更强跨区域减排溢出；2) 区域异质性分化明显：湘南数字经济仅本地显著降碳，湘北数字化会加剧周边碳排放，湘中减排效应不显著，湘西数字经济反而推高本地碳排放；3) 人口集聚、经济发展、交通与工业能耗整体提升区域碳排放，城镇化、第三产业发展具备减排作用。本文所获的研究结果为湖南四大经济区域差异化数字转型与跨区域协同碳治理提供参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the “Dual Carbon” strategy and coordinated regional development, the advancement of the digital economy has become a vital instrument for carbon emission reduction. This paper adopts panel data covering 14 prefecture-level cities in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2022. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is applied to calculate the comprehensive indices of the digital economy and carbon emissions. A spatial Durbin model is constructed based on the adjacency spatial weight matrix to examine the local impacts and spatial spillover effects of the digital economy on carbon emissions. The research findings are summarized as follows: 1) Carbon emissions in Hunan Province exhibit significant positive spatial agglomeration. Both the local main effect and spatial interaction term of the digital economy are significantly negative, indicating that the digital economy can cut carbon emissions locally while generating stronger cross-regional emission-reduction spillovers. 2) There is obvious regional heterogeneity. In southern Hunan, the digital economy only exerts a significant local carbon reduction effect. Digital development in northern Hunan aggravates carbon emissions in surrounding areas, while the emission reduction effect in central Hunan is insignificant. Conversely, the digital economy in western Hunan drives up local carbon emissions. 3) Population agglomeration, economic growth, transportation and industrial energy consumption generally push up regional carbon emissions, whereas urbanization and the development of the tertiary industry contribute to carbon mitigation. The conclusions of this paper offer references for differentiated digital transformation and cross-regional collaborative carbon governance across the four major economic zones of Hunan Province.