三孩政策下城区育龄青年生育意愿及提升策略研究——以十堰市为例

A Study on Fertility Intention and Promotion Strategies of Urban Young People of Childbearing Age under the Three-Child Policy—Taking Shiyan City as an Example

摘要: 目的：了解十堰市城区育龄青年生育意愿的现况及影响因素，为政府规划人口和调整生育政策提供参考。方法：采用一般资料调查表和生育意愿调查问卷对十堰市城区308名育龄青年进行调查。结果：308名育龄青年有生育意愿的有255人(82.8%)，育龄青年生育意愿受多重因素影响，其中社会保障因素影响最为突出，平均得分为7.61；二元Logistic回归分析结果显示，31~40岁年龄段、高中学历、年收入1~3万元的受访者，在生育意愿上呈现出具有统计学意义的显著差异。结论：十堰市大部分育龄青年支持生育三孩，但是目前理想孩子数仍为2。经济成本、时间精力与政策配套是影响青年生育意愿的关键因素，建议构建差异化生育补贴体系、完善住房支持政策组合、创新弹性育儿假制度、构建普惠托育服务网络、优化生育医疗保障服务、培育新型婚育文化生态，真正提高育龄青年的生育意愿。

Abstract: Objective: To investigate the current status and influencing factors of fertility intention among young people of childbearing age in urban Shiyan, so as to provide references for the government to formulate population planning and adjust fertility policies. Methods: A general demographic questionnaire and a fertility intention questionnaire were adopted to survey 308 young individuals of childbearing age in urban Shiyan. Results: Among the 308 respondents, 255 had fertility intention, accounting for 82.8%. The fertility intention of young people of childbearing age was affected by multiple factors, among which social security factors exerted the most prominent impact with an average score of 7.61. Binary Logistic regression analysis revealed that respondents aged 31~40 years, with senior high school education and an annual income of 10,000~30,000 yuan presented statistically significant differences in fertility intention. Conclusion: Most young people of childbearing age in Shiyan support the three-child policy, yet their ideal number of children remains 2 on average. Economic costs, time and energy constraints, and supporting policies serve as core factors affecting young people’s fertility intention. It is recommended to establish a differentiated fertility subsidy system, improve the integrated housing support policy package, design a flexible parental leave system, build an inclusive childcare service network, optimize fertility-related medical security services, and foster a new cultural environment for marriage and childbearing, so as to effectively raise the fertility intention of young people of childbearing age.