新乡市预制菜市场需求导向下的农产品种植结构优化研究

Optimization Path of Agricultural Cropping System Driven by Market Demand of Prefabricated Food Industry in Xinxiang

摘要: 预制菜产业发展推动农业产业由生鲜供给导向转为食品加工适配导向，传统种植结构与食品加工产业的供需错配问题凸显。本文以新乡市全域涉农区县以及规模以上45家预制菜企业为研究对象，构建工业适配度–交易成本双轮分析框架，结合宏观统计、企业脱敏采购与实地调研数据开展实证分析。新乡市预制菜产业规模位居豫北首位，但存在本地原料自给率偏低、外域原料依赖性较高的结构性问题。本地种植产能充足，但受小农经营模式的影响，在品种、品质、供货、标准全方位存在供需错配问题，导致隐性交易成本高，工农协同发展不畅。本文提出MVU-CCU渐进式种植优化路径，建立三级原料稳定量化评价体系与适配测算模型，依据区县资源禀赋制定分类种植优化策略与市域空间布局方案。多案例实证对比验证该模式可显著提升农产品工业适配度、压缩产业链隐性交易成本、实现工农协同增效和农户增收。本研究修正了传统农区预制菜供给不足的单一认知，为黄淮海传统农区工农产业链协同、农业种植结构市场化调整提供初步理论支撑和实践范式。

Abstract: The booming prefabricated food sector has propelled agricultural production to shift from fresh produce supply orientation to processing suitability orientation, which prominently exposes the structural agro-industrial mismatch between conventional cropping pattern and the food manufacturing system. This study targets all agro-administrative counties under Xinxiang’s jurisdiction and 45 above-scale prefabricated food processing enterprises as research samples, constructs a two-dimensional analytical framework integrating agro-processing fitness and transaction cost economics, and conducts empirical calibration with macro statistical datasets, desensitized raw material procurement records of enterprises and first-hand field survey data. As the core cluster of prefabricated food industry in Northern Henan, Xinxiang is confronted with prominent structural bottlenecks, including low local raw material self-sufficiency rate and high external sourcing dependence. Despite sufficient arable land productivity in the jurisdiction, the prevailing smallholder farming regime triggers full-scale mismatches in cultivar deployment, commodity grade, supply continuity and standard compliance, resulting in elevated implicit transaction cost and obstructed agro-industrial integration. This paper proposes an MVU-CCU progressive cropping system optimization pathway, establishes a three-tier raw material traceability & stability quantitative evaluation system and a suitability calibration model, and formulates categorized site-specific planting strategies and municipal spatial layout schemes in line with local agro-resource endowments. Multi-case comparative verification demonstrates that this framework can significantly improve the industrial processing adaptability of local agricultural commodities, curtail the implicit transaction cost across the whole supply chain, realize agro-industrial synergy gain and secure smallholder income increment. This study revisits the stereotyped perception of insufficient prefabricated raw material supply in traditional farming regions, and provides preliminary theoretical support and replicable practical paradigm for the vertical coordination of agro-industrial value chain and market-oriented cropping structure adjustment in the Huang-Huai-Hai traditional agricultural zone.