基于Google Earth Engine的江西省湖泊面积时空演变及驱动因素分析

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Lake Area in Jiangxi Province Based on GEE

摘要: 湖泊是区域水循环和生态系统的重要组成部分，其面积变化与水资源安全、湿地生态和区域可持续发展密切相关。江西省湖泊受季风降水、鄱阳湖水系格局与人类活动共同影响，湖泊面积变化直接关系到洪旱调蓄、湿地保护和水资源配置。本文依托GEE平台，基于Landsat/JRC水体数据，结合水体指数、人机校核、面积分级和分区统计，构建2001~2020年江西省面积大于0.1 km²的湖泊变化数据集，并采用趋势分析和Pearson相关系数探讨气候与人文因素的影响。结果表明：2020年江西省湖泊共2249个，总面积4488.35 km²，约占全省陆域面积的2.69%；2001~2020年湖泊数量呈“增长–下降–再增长”变化，面积呈“前期萎缩–后期扩张”特征。1~10 km²湖泊扩张最明显；赣北湖泊变化主要受鄱阳湖及滨湖水系控制，赣中稳步增长，赣南短周期波动突出。相关分析显示，湖泊数量对气候波动和产业结构变化更敏感，而湖泊总面积更多受大型湖泊水位过程和水系连通格局影响。研究结果有助于认识江西省湖泊的长期变化特征及区域差异，并可为湖泊动态监测、洪旱风险评估和水生态保护研究提供参考。

Abstract: Lakes are important components of regional hydrological and ecological systems, and their area changes are closely related to water security, wetland ecology, and regional sustainable development. Lakes in Jiangxi Province are jointly affected by monsoon precipitation, the Poyang Lake water system, and human activities, and their area dynamics directly influence flood and drought regulation, wetland conservation, and water resource allocation. Based on the Google Earth Engine platform, Landsat/JRC water data, water indices, human-machine verification, area classification, and regional statistics were integrated to construct a dataset of lake changes larger than 0.1 km² in Jiangxi Province from 2001 to 2020. Trend analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were used to explore the relationships between lake changes and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that in 2020, Jiangxi Province had 2249 lakes with a total area of 4488.35 km², accounting for about 2.69% of the provincial land area. From 2001 to 2020, the number of lakes showed an “increase - decrease - re-increase” pattern, whereas lake area showed “early shrinkage followed by later expansion”. Lakes of 1~10 km² expanded most obviously; lake changes in northern Jiangxi were mainly controlled by Poyang Lake and its connected water system, central Jiangxi showed steady growth, and southern Jiangxi was characterized by short-term fluctuations. Correlation results indicate that lake number is more sensitive to climatic variability and industrial-structure changes, while total lake area is more strongly constrained by large-lake water-level processes and hydrological connectivity. These results improve understanding of the long-term dynamics and regional differences of lakes in Jiangxi Province and may serve as a reference for lake monitoring, flood-drought risk assessment, and aquatic ecosystem conservation.