基于人口流动修正引力模型的滇中城市群城市联系强度研究

Study on Urban Connection Intensity of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration Based on Population-Flow-Modified Gravity Model

摘要: 城市群内部城市联系强度是衡量区域一体化程度的核心指标。本文以滇中城市群49个县级行政区为对象，构建经济、社会、乡村三维综合发展质量评价体系，运用熵权-TOPSIS法测算综合发展质量；基于ArcMap网络分析提取最短公路与铁路距离，以反计价权加权平均得到综合距离；引入人口流动系数修正传统引力模型，系统度量城市联系强度。结果表明：(1) 综合发展质量呈显著的“核心–边缘”(core-periphery)分异格局，昆明市辖区远高于其他县区；(2) 引入人口流动系数后，呈贡区引力排名上升，宣威市等人口流出城市下降，有效修正传统偏差；(3) 联系强度呈“一核极强、多核偏弱、边缘破碎”格局，强联系集中于昆明市辖区及周边，大部分单元联系微弱。研究揭示昆明对周边城市的要素吸引力远大于其对周边城市的产业带动效应，区域空间结构呈现“中心极化、外围依附”的特征，交通基础设施不足是关键短板，为滇中城市群及类似区域协同发展提供决策参考。

Abstract: Urban connection intensity within an urban agglomeration is a core indicator for measuring the degree of regional integration. This study takes 49 county-level administrative units in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as research objects, constructs a three-dimensional comprehensive development quality evaluation system covering economic, social, and rural dimensions, and employs the Entropy Weight‑TOPSIS method to measure comprehensive development quality. The shortest road and railway distances between county pairs are extracted via ArcMap network analysis and integrated into a comprehensive distance using a weighted average with weights inversely proportional to per‑unit transport costs. A population mobility coefficient is further introduced to modify the traditional gravity model, enabling a systematic measurement of urban connection intensity. The results show that: (1) comprehensive development quality exhibits a significant “core-periphery” spatial pattern, with Kunming’s municipal districts far outperforming other counties; (2) after incorporating the population mobility coefficient, Chenggong District’s gravity ranking rises while outflow cities such as Xuanwei decline, effectively correcting traditional model bias; and (3) the connection intensity presents a pattern of “extremely strong core, relatively weak multiple cores, and fragmented periphery”, with strong connections concentrated in and around Kunming’s municipal districts, while most inter‑county linkages remain weak. The study reveals that Kunming’s attraction of factors from surrounding areas far exceeds its industrial driving effect on them, and the regional spatial structure is characterized by “central polarization and peripheral dependence”. Insufficient transport infrastructure is identified as a critical bottleneck. These findings provide data‑driven policy references for coordinated development of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration and similar regions.