城乡流动背景下的农村养老脆弱性：人口结构转型、家庭结构变迁与政策支持协同研究

The Vulnerability of Rural Elderly Care in the Context of Urban-Rural Migration: A Collaborative Study of Demographic Transition, Family Structure Change, and Policy Support

摘要: 在快速城镇化和人口深度老龄化的双重进程中，我国农村地区正经历着最为严峻的养老挑战。大规模的青壮年人口城乡流动，不仅直接改变了农村的人口年龄结构，更深层次地瓦解了传统家庭养老所依赖的代际共居与即时照料基础。本文旨在从“人口结构变迁–家庭功能转型–政策支持体系”三重维度，交叉分析当前中国农村养老“脆弱性”的生成机制与多维表现。研究发现，农村养老已陷入“留守老人”主体化、家庭养老空巢化、社会支持碎片化的“三重困境”。基于此，本文提出构建以“县域”为基本单元、以“整合”为核心策略的养老服务体系。该体系强调通过政策创新，整合医疗保障与长期照护资源，激活农村社区与低龄老人互助潜能，引导银发经济要素向县域下沉，并善用适老化技术弥补服务缺口，从而形成一种既符合农村社会经济现实，又能有效回应老年人多元化需求、抵御养老风险的新型支持模式。

Abstract: In the dual process of rapid urbanization and deep population aging, rural areas in China are facing the most severe challenges in elderly care. Large-scale urban-rural migration of the young and middle-aged population has not only directly altered the age structure of the rural population but has also fundamentally eroded the intergenerational co-residence and immediate caregiving foundation on which traditional family-based elderly care relies. This paper aims to analyze the formation mechanisms and multidimensional manifestations of the “vulnerability” of elderly care in rural China from three interconnected dimensions: demographic transition, transformation of family functions, and the policy support system. The study reveals that rural elderly care is caught in a “triple dilemma”: the predominance of “left-behind elderly”, the hollowing out of family-based care, and the fragmentation of social support. Based on these findings, this paper proposes the construction of an elderly care service system centered on the “county” as the fundamental unit, with “integration” as the core strategy. This system emphasizes integrating medical care and long-term care resources through policy innovation, activating the potential for community and mutual support among younger seniors in rural areas, directing silver economy resources toward the county level, and leveraging age-friendly technologies to bridge service gaps. The goal is to establish a new support model that aligns with rural socio-economic realities while effectively addressing the diverse needs of the elderly and mitigating elderly care risks.