跨境电商综合试验区对企业出口韧性的影响研究

The Impact of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones on Firm Export Resilience

摘要: 在全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，提升企业出口韧性成为稳定外贸的关键。本文以跨境电商综合试验区的分批设立为准自然实验，利用2008~2024年国泰安CSMAR数据库中的A股上市公司数据，采用多期双重差分法实证检验了综试区政策对企业出口韧性的影响。研究发现，综试区设立显著提升了所在地企业的出口韧性，该结论经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、PSM-DID等稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，降低贸易成本和促进技术创新是两条核心影响路径。异质性分析发现，政策效应在非国有企业、中小型企业及东部地区企业中更为显著。本文为理解跨境电商政策赋能企业发展提供了微观证据，并为优化综试区政策提供了参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of increasing global trade uncertainty, enhancing firm export resilience has become key to stabilizing foreign trade. This paper takes the staggered establishment of Cross-border E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a time-varying Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach to empirically examine the impact of the pilot zone policy on firm export resilience, using data from A-share listed companies in the CSMAR database from 2008 to 2024. The study finds that the establishment of pilot zones significantly improves the export resilience of local firms. This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests, including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and PSM-DID. Mechanism analysis reveals that reducing trade costs and promoting technological innovation are two core pathways through which the policy works. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects are more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, small and medium-sized firms, and firms located in the eastern region of China. This paper provides micro-level evidence for understanding how cross-border e-commerce policies empower firm development and offers insights for optimizing the pilot zone policy.