河北省学龄人口结构变动与教育资源优化配置研究

Research on the Structural Changes of the School-Age Population and the Optimal Allocation of Educational Resources in Hebei Province

摘要: 人口与教育是动态关联的复杂系统。当前，我国人口发展正经历深刻转变，学龄人口的规模、结构及空间分布随之呈现显著的动态性与区域性特征。实现对学龄人口变动趋势的精准把握，并据此推动基础教育服务实现高水平的普惠性、全面性与协调性，已成为推进教育现代化、达成“优质均衡”目标的核心议题。为此，研究首先，从历史和空间维度厘清河北省学龄人口变动特征；其次，通过多情景动态模拟，预见河北省未来人口格局；再次，评估河北省教育资源与未来需求的匹配度，识别问题区域；最后，针对性地设计旨在提升河北省响应精准度的资源配置机制与政策。

Abstract: Population and education are complex systems dynamically interrelated. Currently, China’s population development is undergoing profound transformations, and the scale, structure, and spatial distribution of the population exhibit significant dynamic and regional characteristics. Accurately grasping the trends of school-age population changes and thereby promoting basic education services to achieve high-level inclusivity, comprehensiveness and coordination has become a core issue in advancing educational modernization and achieving the strategic goal of “high-quality balance”. To this end, this study first clarifies the change characteristics of the school-age population in Hebei Province from historical and spatial dimensions; second, it predicts the future population pattern of Hebei Province through multi-scenario dynamic simulations; third, it evaluates the degree between Hebei Province’s educational resources and future demands to identify problem areas; and finally, it specifically designs resource allocation mechanisms and policies aimed at enhancing the responsiveness, precision, and adaptability of Hebei Province.