基于最小成本法的我国农业生产要素产出弹性的估算

Estimating Output Elasticities of Agricultural Production Factors in China Based on the Least Cost Method

摘要: 本文基于最小成本法的市场假设，利用历年农产品生产成本收益调查数据和相关文献，结合农林牧渔业分项产值构成进行加权平均，估算得到目前我国农业生产物质消耗(资本)、劳动和土地投入比重即产出弹性分别约是0.55、0.3和0.15。它克服了目前流行的回归优化而带来的不稳健性。另外，测算了全国农林牧渔业和大农业的科技进步贡献率。

Abstract: Based on market hypothesis of the minimum cost method, using historical production cost benefit survey data and related literature, combined the weighted average of farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, this paper estimates that the current output elasticities of the investment proportion of the agricultural production material consumption (capital), labor and land are about 0.55, 0.3 and 0.15 respectively. It overcomes un-robustness of the popular regression optimize method. In addition, the contribution rates of scientific and technological progress on the farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and mega-agriculture are measured.