数字经济对电子商务交易规模的影响因素探究——基于中国31个省级行政区的面板数据

An Investigation into the Influencing Factors of the Digital Economy on E-Commerce Transaction Scale—A Panel Data Study Based on 31 Provincial-Level Administrative Regions in China

摘要: 随着数字经济与实体经济的深度融合，探究其对电子商务交易规模的影响机制对推动电商高质量发展具有重要意义。本文选取31个省级行政区2015~2024年的相关数据，应用双向固定效应模型，实证分析数字经济对电子商务交易规模的影响。结果发现：数字经济对我国电子商务交易规模的增长具有显著正向促进作用，且存在区域异质性。因此，本文从数字基础设施建设、区域差异化发展、支撑体系完善三方面提出政策建议，为推动数字经济与电子商务深度融合提供经验参考与决策依据。

Abstract: With the deepening integration of the digital economy and the real economy, exploring its influencing mechanism on the scale of e-commerce transactions is of great significance for promoting the high-quality development of e-commerce. Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2015 to 2024, this paper employs a two-way fixed effects model to empirically analyze the impact of the digital economy on e-commerce transaction scale. The findings reveal that the digital economy exerts a significantly positive effect on the growth of China’s e-commerce transaction scale, with notable regional heterogeneity. Accordingly, this paper proposes policy recommendations from three aspects: digital infrastructure construction, regionally differentiated development strategies, and improvement of supporting systems, so as to provide empirical references and decision-making bases for promoting the deeper integration of the digital economy and e-commerce.