清远市出生率影响因素分析与ARIMAX预测

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Birth Rate in Qingyuan City and ARIMAX Prediction

摘要: 出生率作为人口统计的重要指标，体现着当前的人口动态与未来的发展趋势，同时也关乎到劳动力的供应、经济的增长潜力、社会的养老负担乃至整个国家的竞争力等等。自推行计划生育政策以来，我国的生育率发生了根本性的变化，计划生育政策是导致我国人口出生率大幅度降低的重要因素。本次论文选取了清远市2005~2024年的各项数据，期间政策不断变换。此次研究加入了政策因素等虚拟变量进行考虑，在分析各项经济和人口指标与出生率的相关性的同时，通过加入虚拟变量采用ARIMAX模型以此对2025~2028年的出生率进行更准确的预测，并以2025年的真实出生率与预测出生率作出对照，以证实模型的准确性。

Abstract: As a key demographic indicator, the birth rate reflects current population dynamics and future trends, while also bearing on labor supply, economic growth potential, social old-age support burdens, and even national competitiveness as a whole. Since the implementation of the family planning policy, China’s fertility level has undergone fundamental changes, with the policy being a major factor contributing to the substantial decline in the country’s birth rate. This study selects various data from Qingyuan City over the period 2005~2024, during which the policy underwent several adjustments. In this research, dummy variables, including policy factors, are incorporated for consideration. While analyzing the correlations between various economic and demographic indicators and the birth rate, the ARIMAX model with dummy variables is employed to produce more accurate predictions of the birth rate for 2025~2028. The actual birth rate of 2025 is then compared with the predicted value to validate the model’s accuracy.