数字普惠金融对黄河流域农业经济韧性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on the Resilience of Agricultural Economy in the Yellow River Basin

摘要: 本文依托2013~2023年黄河流域九省区的面板数据，运用熵值法测度农业经济韧性水平，据此构建中介效应模型与固定效应模型，实证探究黄河流域数字普惠金融对农业经济韧性的影响，并进一步分析了农村产业融合的作用机制。结果表明，数字普惠金融可以显著提升农业经济韧性，其覆盖广度是核心驱动因素，该结论通过了内生性检验和稳健性检验。第二，作用机制的结果表明，数字普惠金融主要通过促进农村产业融合来对农业经济韧性产生积极影响。第三，异质性分析揭示，在黄河流域下游地区这一促进作用更强。第四，门槛效应检验发现，政府职能在数字普惠金融对农业经济韧性提升方面存在非线性影响效应。基于上述研究，应该着力提升黄河流域数字普惠金融的整体发展水平，促进农村产业融合和因地制宜完善地区数字化基础设施和服务体系，旨在为数字普惠金融助力农业经济韧性提升提供实践参考与经验借鉴。

Abstract: Using panel data from nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2023, this paper measures the level of agricultural economic resilience using the entropy method, and based on this, constructs a mediation effect model and a fixed effect model to empirically explore the impact of digital inclusive finance on agricultural economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin. It further analyzes the role mechanism of rural industrial integration. The results show that digital inclusive finance can significantly enhance agricultural economic resilience, with coverage breadth being the core driving factor; this conclusion passes both endogeneity and robustness tests. Second, the mechanism analysis indicates that digital inclusive finance mainly positively influences agricultural economic resilience through promoting rural industrial integration. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this promoting effect is stronger in the downstream areas of the Yellow River Basin. Fourth, the threshold effect test finds that government functions have a nonlinear impact on the enhancement of agricultural economic resilience by digital inclusive finance. Based on the above research, efforts should be made to improve the overall development level of digital inclusive finance in the Yellow River Basin, promote rural industrial integration, and improve local digital infrastructure and service systems according to local conditions, aiming to provide practical reference and experiential learning for enhancing agricultural economic resilience through digital inclusive finance.