中国对外直接投资对东盟国家经济发展水平有影响吗？

Does China’s Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Economic Development Level of ASEAN Countries?

摘要: 目前RCEP全面生效实施，中国同东盟的经贸投资合作不断加深，中国已经连续多年成为东盟最大的投资来源国之一。中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对于东盟国家的基础设施建设、产业升级、贸易联通等都起到了重要的作用，但是它对东道国经济发展水平的长期影响还需要实证检验。文章以2014年以后东盟国家的面板数据为样本，用双向固定效应模型实证检验中国对外直接投资对东盟国家人均GDP水平的影响效应。研究结果表明，中国对外直接投资对东盟国家经济发展水平有显著的正向促进作用。研究结论为加深中国与东盟的经贸投资合作、健全区域经济协同机制提供了经验证据，也给RCEP框架之下继续释放投资合作红利提供了政策参照。

Abstract: With the full implementation of the RCEP, economic and trade investment cooperation between China and ASEAN has been continuously deepening. China has been one of the largest sources of investment for ASEAN for many years. China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has played an important role in infrastructure construction, industrial upgrading, and trade connectivity in ASEAN countries, but its long-term impact on the host countries’ economic development still needs empirical testing. This paper takes panel data of ASEAN countries after 2014 as a sample and uses a two-way fixed effects model to empirically test the impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment on the per capita GDP level of ASEAN countries. The research results show that China’s outward foreign direct investment has a significant positive effect on the economic development level of ASEAN countries. The conclusions of this study provide empirical evidence for deepening China-ASEAN economic and trade investment cooperation, improving regional economic coordination mechanisms, and also offer policy reference for continuing to release investment cooperation benefits under the RCEP framework.