基于长时间序列洪湖总磷变化及关键驱动因子分析
Analysis of Total Phosphorus Variation and Its Key Driving Factors in Honghu Lake Based on Long‑Term Time Series
DOI: 10.12677/aep.2026.168142, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 武柯宏*, 陈颖姝, 杨 卫, 周小荃：湖北省水利水电规划勘测设计院有限公司，湖北 武汉
关键词: 洪湖；总磷；水位；生态补水量；相关性分析；Honghu Lake； TP； Water Level； Ecological Replenishment Volume； Correlation Analysis
摘要: 基于2016~2025年洪湖总磷浓度监测数据，综合评价洪湖总磷浓度年际时空变化特征，运用Pearson相关分析研究总磷浓度与水位和生态补水量的相关程度，探究影响洪湖总磷变化的关键水文驱动因子。结果表明：(1) 2016~2025年洪湖总磷总体呈现恶化趋势，受洪湖退垸还湖的影响，2020年后洪湖总磷浓度明显上升；(2) 2016年~2025年洪湖总磷浓度与生态补水量呈显著负相关性，与湖泊水位不存在显著的相关性，生态补水量是影响洪湖总磷浓度变化的一个关键性驱动因子。
Abstract: Based on monitoring data of total phosphorus (TP) concentration in Honghu Lake from 2016 to 2025, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted on the interannual spatiotemporal variation characteristics of TP concentration. Pearson correlation analysis was applied to examine the correlations between TP concentration and water level as well as ecological water supplement volume, aiming to identify the key hydrological driving factors affecting TP changes in Honghu Lake. The results showed that: (1) From 2016 to 2025, the overall TP concentration in Honghu Lake exhibited a deteriorating trend, and influenced by the project of returning polders to the lake, the TP concentration increased significantly after 2020; (2) During 2016~2025, the TP concentration was significantly negatively correlated with ecological water supplement volume, while no significant correlation was found with lake water level, indicating that ecological water supplement volume is a key driving factor for the variation of TP concentration in Honghu Lake.
文章引用：武柯宏, 陈颖姝, 杨卫, 周小荃. 基于长时间序列洪湖总磷变化及关键驱动因子分析[J]. 环境保护前沿, 2026, 16(8): 1412-1420. https://doi.org/10.12677/aep.2026.168142

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