重庆老龄化城乡倒置时空特征及驱动因素研究

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban-Rural Inversion of Aging in Chongqing

摘要: 随着我国社会经济发展，老龄化城乡倒置现象具有普遍性。基于2010、2020年重庆市人口普查数据，采用人口老龄化系数、人口老龄化城乡倒置度、空间自相关和地理探测器等指标方法，探究重庆市人口老龄化城乡倒置的时空特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：1) 2010~2020年重庆市城乡老龄化率同步攀升，城镇老龄化率增速呈现“先快后慢”趋势，乡村老龄化率始终高于城镇，且速度呈现超线性加速态势；2) 空间特征上，十年间城镇老龄化演变速率相对平缓，农村老龄化高值区域持续扩张，城乡倒置显著区由点状零星分布，演变为主城近郊集聚增强、东西梯度清晰的格局；3) 驱动因素方面，重庆市老龄化城乡倒置是多因素共同作用的结果，驱动模式从“自然–社会经济耦合”转向“人口–社会经济耦合”。

Abstract: With the socio-economic development of China, the phenomenon of urban-rural inversion of aging has become a common occurrence. Based on the 2010 and 2020 population census data of Chongqing, this paper explores the spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban-rural inversion of aging in Chongqing by adopting indicators and methods including the population aging coefficient, urban-rural inversion degree of population aging, spatial autocorrelation and geographical detector. The results show that: 1) From 2010 to 2020, the urban and rural aging rates in Chongqing rose synchronously; the growth rate of urban aging rate presented a trend of “fast first and then slow”, while the rural aging rate remained higher than the urban one with a super-linear accelerating growth trend. 2) In terms of spatial characteristics, the evolution rate of urban aging was relatively gentle over the decade, and the high-value areas of rural aging expanded continuously; the areas with significant urban-rural inversion of aging evolved from scattered dot-like distribution to a pattern with enhanced agglomeration in the suburban areas of the main urban area and a clear east-west gradient. 3) In terms of driving factors, the urban-rural inversion of aging in Chongqing is the result of the joint action of multiple factors, and its driving mode has shifted from “natural-socio-economic coupling” to “population-socio-economic coupling”.