基于蒙特卡洛模拟的西部地区省域经济联系空间特征研究

Study on the Spatial Characteristics of Provincial Economic Ties in the Western Region Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

摘要: 为平衡西部地区内部发展，本文从经济联系入手，通过蒙特卡洛模拟预测西部地区12个省域2026年经济联系的空间特征。先将2024年真实数据与蒙特卡洛模拟数据对比，进行稳健性检验判断蒙特卡洛方法的可行性，再运用引力模型和社会网络分析等方法，揭示蒙特卡洛预测的2026年西部地区省域经济联系空间特征。结果表明：蒙特卡洛方法具有较好的预测性；西部地区各经济联系强度、首选地等存在差异；经济联系网络呈现出稳定而显著的核心–边缘特征；尚未形成联系紧密的区域性子群，反映出西部地区经济一体化程度较低，省域间经济联动不足，具有典型的省域经济特征。

Abstract: In order to balance the internal development of the western region, this paper starts from economic ties and predicts the spatial characteristics of economic ties in 12 provinces in the western region in 2026 through Monte Carlo simulation. First, the real data in 2024 is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation data, the robustness test is carried out to judge the feasibility of the Monte Carlo method, and then the gravitational model and social network analysis are used to reveal the spatial characteristics of provincial economic ties in the western region predicted by Monte Carlo in 2026. The results show that the Monte Carlo method has good predictiveness. There are differences in the intensity of economic ties and preferred locations in the western region. The economic connection network presents stable and significant core-edge characteristics. The regional subgroup has not yet formed a close connection, reflecting the low degree of economic integration in the western region, the lack of economic linkage between provinces, and the typical provincial economic characteristics.