碳交易成本穿透效应与低碳供应链网络结构响应研究——基于管理工程视角的双态阈值测算框架

Carbon Trading Cost Penetration and Structural Response of Low-Carbon Supply Chain Networks—A Dual-State Threshold Measurement Framework from a Management Engineering Perspective

摘要: 碳交易机制能否实质性影响低碳供应链网络设计，关键在于碳价信号能否穿透基础运营成本并转化为设施选址、流量配置和绿色技术投入的管理工程决策动因。针对既有研究缺少可操作量化判别指标的问题，本文提出碳成本比θ，即碳交易净成本与基础运营成本之比，并以θ* = 0.1%作为概念验证情景下的临界判据，构建“结构锁定态–结构响应态”双态阈值测算框架。在此基础上，建立生产–仓储–运输一体化的双目标混合整数规划模型，采用非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)求解，并以包含5个候选工厂、6个候选分销中心和10个需求市场的轻工业网络算例开展仿真。结果表明，在60~600元/t CO₂碳价情景下，θ最高仅为0.014245%，显著低于θ*，网络拓扑未发生结构性调整，系统处于结构锁定态；高排放行业对比估算中，θ约为1.8%，系统进入结构响应态。研究表明，碳交易机制对供应链网络结构的影响并非取决于碳价绝对水平，而取决于碳成本相对于基础运营成本的相对穿透强度。

Abstract: Whether a carbon trading mechanism can substantially affect low-carbon supply chain network design depends on whether the carbon price signal can penetrate baseline operating costs and become a driver of management engineering decisions such as facility location, flow allocation and green technology investment. To address the lack of an operational quantitative criterion in existing studies, this paper proposes the carbon cost ratio θ, defined as the ratio of net carbon trading cost to baseline operating cost, and adopts θ* = 0.1% as a critical benchmark in the proof-of-concept scenario to construct a dual-state threshold measurement framework covering the structure-locked state and the structure-responsive state. A bi-objective mixed-integer programming model integrating production, warehousing and transportation is developed and solved using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). Numerical simulations are conducted on a light-industry network with 5 candidate plants, 6 candidate distribution centers and 10 demand markets. The results show that when the carbon price ranges from 60 to 600 CNY/t CO₂, θ reaches a maximum of only 0.014245%, which is far below θ*, and the network topology does not change structurally, indicating a structure-locked state. In a comparative high-emission industry scenario, θ is approximately 1.8%, and the system enters the structure-responsive state. The findings indicate that the impact of carbon trading on supply chain network structure depends not on the absolute carbon price but on the relative penetration intensity of carbon cost into baseline operating costs.