蓝碳视角下大连海洋牧场管理绩效的实证研究——基于新型渔业经营主体的调查

Empirical Study on the Management Performance of Dalian Marine Ranching from the Perspective of Blue Carbon—Based on a Survey of New-Type Fishery Operators

摘要: 在海洋渔业绿色低碳转型的背景下，海洋牧场作为现代渔业生产体系的重要载体，其管理绩效直接影响生态保护与经济产出的协同发展。本文以大连市新型渔业经营主体为研究对象，基于计划行为理论和技术接受模型构建分析框架，利用320份问卷调查数据，采用有序Logistic回归模型实证检验蓝碳认知、技术获取、政策支持等因素对海洋牧场管理绩效感知的影响。结果表明：碳汇补偿预期是提升管理绩效感知的最强驱动力(β = 0.624, P < 0.01)；技术培训频次与政策补贴力度亦显著正向影响绩效评价；而经营规模与学历水平未通过显著性检验。据此提出完善碳汇交易定价机制、搭建智慧化技术实训平台、实施差异化生态补贴等对策建议，为大连市及我国北方沿海地区海洋牧场科学化管理提供决策参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the green and low-carbon transition of marine fisheries, marine ranching serves as a crucial carrier of the modern fishery production system. Its management performance directly impacts the synergy between ecological protection and economic output. This paper takes new-type fishery operators in Dalian as research objects, constructs an analytical framework based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Technology Acceptance Model, and uses 320 valid questionnaire data with ordered Logistic regression to empirically test the effects of blue carbon cognition, technology acquisition, and policy support on perceived management performance of marine ranching. The results show that the expectation of carbon sink compensation is the strongest driver of perceived performance (β = 0.624, P < 0.01); technical training frequency and policy subsidy intensity also significantly positively affect performance evaluation, while operation scale and education level are not significant. Corresponding suggestions are proposed, including improving carbon sink pricing mechanisms, building intelligent technology training platforms, and implementing differentiated ecological subsidies, providing decision-making references for scientific management of marine ranching in Dalian and other northern coastal areas.