中老泰铁路对昆明经济增长的影响及对策研究

Research on the Impact of China-Laos-Thailand Railway on Kunming’s Economic Growth and Countermeasures

摘要: 研究旨在量化中老泰铁路对昆明市经济增长的具体影响。研究采用2010~2023年的昆明市时间序列数据，构建了一个包含“铁路开通”和“公共卫生事件”双重虚拟变量的多元线性回归模型，以测算铁路通车带来的净经济效应。同时，结合灰色关联分析法，探讨了铁路货运量与物流、外贸、制造业等不同经济指标之间的联动关系。研究发现，铁路通车每年为昆明带来约427.53亿元的GDP增量，该效应在剔除公共卫生事件干扰后依然显著。投资、外贸和城镇化是经济增长的核心驱动力。铁路货运与物流业、外贸和第三产业关联紧密，但与制造业的联动不足。基于此，论文从提升经济总量、协同发展服务业及推动产融融合三个方面，为昆明建设面向东盟的国际枢纽提出了相应对策。

Abstract: This study aims to quantify the specific impact of the China-Laos-Thailand Railway on Kunming’s economic growth. Based on Kunming’s time-series data spanning 2010 to 2023, this paper constructs a multiple linear regression model with two dummy variables—the railway opening and public health emergencies—to estimate the net economic effect brought by the railway’s operation. Meanwhile, grey relational analysis (GRA) is adopted to explore the interactive correlations between railway freight volume and various economic indicators including logistics, foreign trade, and manufacturing. Empirical results show that the railway generates an annual GDP increment of approximately 42.753 billion yuan for Kunming, and such growth effect remains statistically significant after eliminating disturbances caused by public health emergencies. Investment, foreign trade and urbanization constitute the core driving forces of economic growth. Railway freight volume presents a strong grey correlation with the logistics industry, foreign trade and the tertiary industry, while its linkage with manufacturing sectors is insufficient. On this basis, this paper puts forward targeted countermeasures for Kunming to build an international hub facing ASEAN from three dimensions: expanding aggregate economic output, realizing coordinated development of service industries, and advancing industry-finance integration.