数实融合对碳排放的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital-Real Integration on Carbon Emissions

摘要: 在“数字化绿色化协同转型”与数字经济迅猛发展的宏观背景下，探究数字技术与实体经济深度融合对碳排放的影响及内在机制具有重要的现实意义。本文基于2007~2023年中国280个地级及以上城市的面板数据，采用专利共分类方法测算数实融合水平，并运用双向固定效用模型，实证检验了数实融合对碳排放的影响效应、异质性特征及其作用机制。研究发现：第一，数实融合能够显著抑制城市二氧化碳排放总量与碳排放强度，该结论在经过内生性处理与一系列稳健性检验后依然稳健成立。第二，数实融合的碳减排效应存在显著的城市与区域异质性，在高人力资本水平的城市以及东部地区，其对碳排放的抑制作用更为显著，而在低人力资本及中西部城市则不显著。第三，机制检验表明，数实融合主要通过推动绿色技术创新、促进产业结构升级和提升生态承载能力三条路径间接实现碳减排。本文结论为纵深推进数实融合战略、实施差异化精准施策以助力企业与城市减污降碳协同治理提供了经验证据和政策启示。

Abstract: Against the background of China’s “Digital and Green Synergistic Transformation” and the digital economy developing rapidly, investigating the impact and internal mechanisms of deep integration between digital technology and the real economy on carbon emissions holds significant practical importance. Based on panel data from 280 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2007 to 2023, this study measures the level of digital-real integration using a patent co-classification method and employs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine the effects, heterogeneity, and mechanisms through which digital-real integration influences carbon emissions. The study found that: Firstly, digital-real integration reduces both total CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity at the city level in a significant way, and this conclusion remains solidly established after addressing endogeneity and conducting a series of robustness checks. Secondly, the carbon emission reduction effect of digital-real integration exhibits significant urban and regional heterogeneity—its emission-reducing impact is more significant in cities with high human capital, as well as in eastern regions, while it is insignificant in cities with low human capital, and in central and western regions. Thirdly, the mechanism analysis shows that digital-real integration mainly achieves carbon reduction indirectly through three pathways: promoting green technological innovation, facilitating the upgrading of industrial structure, and increasing the ecological carrying capacity. The conclusion of this research provides empirical evidence and policy implications for advancing the digital-real integration strategy and implementing targeted, differentiated policies to support coordinated pollution control and carbon reduction efforts among enterprises and cities.