我国海洋渔业净碳排放量测算及减排路径探究

Calculation of Net Carbon Emissions in China’s Marine Fisheries and Exploration of Emission Reduction Pathways

摘要: 过量的碳排放将对人类生存环境造成不可逆转的破坏，因此降低碳排放已成为当前亟需解决的问题。海洋渔业既能通过海洋捕捞和渔业养殖增加碳排放，也可以通过生物固碳增加碳汇，因此，科学评估海洋渔业碳排放和碳汇的表现，识别分析其影响因素，并探索可行的减排路径，有助于更全面地认识海洋渔业碳排放变化及其减排潜力。基于此，本文先构建净碳排放测算模型测算中国沿海9个省级行政区2008~2020年海洋渔业碳排放量、碳汇量和净碳排放量，借用ArcGIS研究时空分布变化，再用Kaya-LMDI模型拆分净排放驱动因素，最后运用系统动力学模型模拟2020~2030年五种发展场景的净排放情况，以此给出减排对策。结果表明，中国海洋渔业净碳排放量总体下降，优化产业结构、扩大藻类养殖占比，可以同时实现减排与增汇，实现高效地减少碳排放。

Abstract: Excessive carbon emissions can cause irreversible damage to the human living environment; therefore, reducing carbon emissions has become an urgent issue that needs to be addressed. Marine fisheries can increase carbon emissions through marine fishing and aquaculture, while they can also increase carbon sinks through biological carbon fixation. Therefore, scientifically assessing the carbon emissions and carbon sinks of marine fisheries, identifying and analyzing their influencing factors, and exploring feasible emission reduction pathways can help provide a more comprehensive understanding of carbon emission changes and emission reduction potential in marine fisheries. Based on this, this paper first constructs a net carbon emission accounting model to measure the carbon emissions, carbon sinks, and net carbon emissions of marine fisheries in nine coastal provincial-level administrative regions of China from 2008 to 2020. ArcGIS is then used to analyze changes in their spatial and temporal distribution. Next, the Kaya-LMDI model is applied to decompose the driving factors of net emissions. Finally, a system dynamics model is used to simulate net emissions under five development scenarios from 2020 to 2030, and emission reduction countermeasures are proposed accordingly. The results show that the net carbon emissions of China’s marine fisheries generally declined. Optimizing the industrial structure and increasing the proportion of algae aquaculture can achieve both emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement, thereby reducing carbon emissions more effectively.