广东省县域农业新质生产力对耕地生态效率的影响研究

Study on Effects of New Quality Agricultural Productive Forces on Cultivated Land Use Eco-Efficiency: County-Level Evidence from Guangdong Province

摘要: 在耕地资源约束趋紧、农业面源污染与碳减排压力并存的背景下，厘清农业新质生产力与耕地利用生态效率之间的关系，对协同推进粮食安全、耕地保护与农业绿色转型至关重要。本文基于广东省具备有效数据的111个县(区) 2012~2024年面板数据，采用含非期望产出的Super-SBM模型测算耕地利用生态效率，运用熵权法构建农业新质生产力指数，并建立县域和年份双向固定效应模型进行检验。结果表明：农业新质生产力总指数与耕地利用生态效率在10%显著性水平上呈正向关联；技术创新呈显著倒U形关系；要素协同优化系数为正但不显著；产业升级呈显著负向关联。分区域结果显示，总指数在四大区域均不显著，各构成维度的作用方向和显著性存在明显差异。研究表明，农业新质生产力的生态效应取决于技术、要素和产业发展方式与县域耕地生产条件的适配程度，应加强科技成果与耕地生产实践的衔接，并因地制宜推进农业绿色转型。

Abstract: Amid tightening cultivated land constraints, concurrent agricultural non-point source pollution and carbon emission reduction pressures, understanding the relationship between new quality agricultural productive forces (NQAPF) and cultivated land use eco-efficiency is important for coordinating food security, cultivated land protection, and green agricultural transformation. Using panel data from 111 counties (districts) in Guangdong Province from 2012 to 2024 with available data, this study measures cultivated land use eco-efficiency with an undesirable-output Super-SBM model, constructs the NQAPF index using entropy weights, and estimates county and year two-way fixed-effects models. The results show that the aggregate NQAPF index is positively associated with eco-efficiency at the 10% significance level. Technological innovation exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship; factor coordination has a positive but insignificant coefficient; and industrial upgrading is negatively associated with eco-efficiency. The regional breakdown results show that the aggregate effect is insignificant in all four subregions, while the direction and significance of the effects of each component dimension were significantly different. These findings highlight that the eco-efficiency of NQAPF depends on aligning technology, factor allocation, and industrial development with county-level cultivated land farming conditions. It is necessary to strengthen the connection between scientific and technological achievements and cultivated land farming practices, and promote the green transformation of agriculture in a way that suits local conditions.