城市人口热暴露风险及土地利用结构耦合关系研究——以石家庄市为例
The Spatial Evolution of Population Heat Exposure and Its Coupling Relationship with Land Use Structure in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province
DOI: 10.12677/gser.2026.154065, PDF,   
作者: 齐博杰：河北地质大学土地科学与空间规划学院，河北 石家庄；秦 岭*：河北地质大学土地科学与空间规划学院，河北 石家庄；河北省农业干旱遥感监测国际联合研究中心，河北 石家庄
关键词: 人口热暴露；土地利用结构；城市热岛；空间聚类；Population Heat Exposure； Land-Use Structure； Urban Heat Island； Spatial Clustering
摘要: 当前极端高温事件频发，地表热环境的逐步恶化已成为威胁城市人口健康的主要环境风险。而土地利用和覆盖的变化深刻地促进了当地热失衡和人口热暴露风险的时空变化。为了进一步分析“土地利用–热环境–人口热暴露”的内在驱动机制和空间耦合定律，本研究以石家庄为例。利用2004年至2020年的多周期遥感图像和高精度人口网格数据，结合地表温度反演、景观生态指数和空间自相关模型，建立了一个综合多尺度分析框架，用于确定热暴露风险和空间演变。结果显示：1) 城市建设用地持续扩张深刻地重塑了区域热环境，直接导致人口热暴露高风险区域的面积显著增加。2) 不同类型的土地利用结构对热暴露风险的影响具有显著的异质性。不透水表面作为热源，具有较高的正空间相关性，重心迁移特性与热暴露强度相关。农田和森林植被在生态缓慢释放和缓冲热环境方面发挥着核心作用。人口热暴露风险形成“城镇高聚集、耕地低聚集”的空间模式。3) 城市水系统和蓝绿色生态区的恢复对冷岛附近的当地小气候调节产生了重大影响，有效抵消了高密度开发造成的热暴露增加的风险。本研究揭示土地利用变化对热暴露风险的影响机制，为热风险分区与差异化韧性提升提供了定量证据与空间指引。
Abstract: The frequent occurrence of extreme heat events and the gradual deterioration of the surface thermal environment have become the main environmental risks threatening the health of urban populations. The changes in land use and cover have profoundly promoted the spatiotemporal changes in local thermal imbalance and population heat exposure risk. In order to further analyze the intrinsic driving mechanism and spatial coupling law of “land use thermal environment population heat exposure”, this study takes Shijiazhuang as an example. A comprehensive multi-scale analysis framework was established using multi period remote sensing images and high-precision population grid data from 2004 to 2020, combined with surface temperature inversion, landscape ecological index, and spatial autocorrelation model, to determine heat exposure risk and spatial evolution. The results show that: 1) The continuous expansion of urban construction land has profoundly reshaped the regional thermal environment, directly leading to a significant increase in the area of high-risk areas for population heat exposure. 2) The impact of different types of land use structures on heat exposure risk exhibits significant heterogeneity. The impermeable surface, as a heat source, has a high positive spatial correlation, and the center of gravity migration characteristics are related to the heat exposure intensity. Farmland and forest vegetation play a central role in slow ecological release and buffering of thermal environments. The risk of population heat exposure forms a spatial pattern of “high concentration in urban areas and low concentration in cultivated land”. 3) The restoration of urban water systems and blue-green ecological zones has had a significant impact on local microclimate regulation near Cold Island, effectively offsetting the risk of increased heat exposure caused by high-density development. This study reveals the impact mechanism of land use change on heat exposure risk, providing quantitative evidence and spatial guidance for heat risk zoning and differentiated resilience enhancement.
文章引用：齐博杰, 秦岭. 城市人口热暴露风险及土地利用结构耦合关系研究——以石家庄市为例[J]. 地理科学研究, 2026, 15(4): 718-731. https://doi.org/10.12677/gser.2026.154065

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