基于PLUS-InVEST模型的黄河流域河南段三生空间演变多情景模拟与碳储量评估

Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Evolution of the Production, Living and Ecological Spaces and Carbon Storage Assessment in the Henan Section of the Yellow River Basin Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model

摘要: 在我国“双碳”战略与黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略叠加推进的背景下，三生空间格局转型深刻影响区域碳平衡。以黄河流域河南段为研究区，整合土地利用、自然环境与社会经济等多源数据，耦合PLUS-InVEST模型，开展三生空间演变多情景模拟与碳储量评估，旨在揭示三生空间转型的碳储量效应，为区域低碳发展提供科学支撑。结果显示：1) 2000~2020年研究区生产空间和生态空间缩减、生活空间扩张，空间转移以生产空间转向生活空间为主。2) 近20年，研究区碳储量累计减少9.6 × 10⁶ t，生活空间侵占生产空间是碳储量下降主要因素。3) 多情景模拟显示，耕地保护情景下碳储量最大，为373.21 × 10⁶ t，城镇发展情景下碳储量最小，为366.59 × 10⁶ t。2020~2040年4种发展情景下的碳储量均呈现不同程度的衰减特征。其中，城镇发展情景下碳损失风险最高，碳储量减少量达12.51 × 10⁶ t (降幅3.41%)。耕地保护情景碳损失风险最低，碳储量减少量为5.89 × 10⁶ t (降幅1.58%)，但对城镇发展约束较强。可持续发展模式能在保障发展需求的同时最大限度维系碳汇功能(降幅为2.75%)，为流域国土空间低碳优化提供了最优路径参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s dual carbon goals and the Yellow River Basin’s ecological protection and high-quality development strategy, the transformation of the tripartite spatial structure—production, living, and ecological spaces—has profoundly influenced regional carbon balance. Taking the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin as the study area, this research integrates multi-source data on land use, natural environment, and socioeconomic factors, and couples the PLUS-InVEST model to simulate multiple scenarios of tripartite space evolution and assess carbon storage. The aim is to reveal the impacts of spatial transformation on carbon storage and provide scientific support for low-carbon regional development. Results show: 1) From 2000 to 2020, production and ecological spaces decreased while living space expanded in the study area, with the primary spatial shift being from production to living space. 2) Over the past two decades, total carbon storage in the region declined by 9.6 × 10⁶ tons, primarily due to living space encroaching upon production space. 3) Scenario simulations indicate that carbon storage was the highest under the farmland protection scenario at 373.21 × 10⁶ tons, and the lowest under the urban development scenario at 366.59 × 10⁶ tons. From 2020 to 2040, all four development scenarios showed varying degrees of carbon storage decline. Among them, the urban development scenario carried the highest risk of carbon loss, with a reduction of 12.51 × 10⁶ tons (a 3.41% decrease). The farmland protection scenario had the lowest carbon loss risk, with a reduction of 5.89 × 10⁶ tons (1.58% decrease), although it imposed strong constraints on urban development. The sustainable development scenario achieved the best balance, maintaining carbon sequestration functions to the greatest extent while meeting development needs (a 2.75% decrease), offering an optimal reference for low-carbon optimization of territorial space in the basin.