基于InVEST模型的淮河流域产水量时空分异及驱动机制

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Water Yield and Their Driving Mechanisms in the Huaihe River Basin Based on the InVEST Model

摘要: 以淮河流域为研究区，选取2000年、2010年和2020年为典型年份，整合气象、DEM、土地利用及土壤等多源数据，经ArcGIS预处理后构建InVEST产水量模块输入数据库，模拟流域产水量的时空分布特征，并利用水文站点实测径流数据对模型进行验证。结果表明，淮河流域产水量空间上呈“南高北低、山区高于平原”的分布格局，时间上2000~2020年表现为先减后增的变化趋势，全流域平均产水量由2000年的387 mm降至2010年的352 mm，2020年回升至378 mm。降水是产水量空间分异的主控因子，上游降水与产水量相关系数达0.89；林地对产水具有正向维持作用(q = 0.41)，建设用地扩张显著降低局地产水能力(q = 0.37)。模型验证结果(R² = 0.87~0.91, NSE > 0.83, RE < 3%)表明InVEST模型在淮河流域具有较好适用性。研究结果可为淮河流域水资源合理配置及生态保护提供科学依据。

Abstract: Focusing on the Huaihe River Basin as the study area, this study selected 2000, 2010, and 2020 as representative years. By integrating multi-source data including meteorological records, digital elevation models (DEM), land use information, and soil parameters, and after ArcGIS preprocessing, we developed the InVEST water yield model module for database input to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of water yield in the basin. The model was validated using actual runoff data from hydrological stations. Results indicate that water yield in the Huaihe River Basin exhibits a spatial distribution pattern characterized by “higher values in the southern and northern regions, with mountainous areas showing higher yields than plains.” Temporally, the yield demonstrated a trend of initial decline followed by recovery from 2000 to 2020, with the average annual yield decreasing from 387 mm in 2000 to 352 mm in 2010 before rebounding to 378 mm in 2020. Precipitation is the primary driver of spatial variability in water yield, with a correlation coefficient of 0.89 between upstream precipitation and yield; forest land positively contributes to water yield maintenance q = 0.41, while urban expansion significantly reduces local water yield capacity q = 0.37. Model validation results (R² = 0.87~0.91, NSE > 0.83, RE < 3%) demonstrate the high applicability of the InVEST model in the Huaihe River Basin. These findings provide a scientific basis for rational water resource allocation and ecological conservation efforts in the region.