基于熵权TOPSIS与ARIMA的自媒体电商产业数字化发展研究

A Study on the Digital Development of Self-Media E-Commerce Industry Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS and ARIMA

摘要: 根据全国31个省、自治区、直辖市的数字经济发展数据，利用熵权TOPSIS法筛选出“有电子商务交易活动的企业比重”和“电子商务交易额”两项关键指标，借助结构方程模型验证其对数字经济发展的影响。同时，以安徽省为例，对上述两个指标的历史数据进行分析，利用ARIMA模型预测其未来发展趋势。结果显示，未来安徽省电商企业数量占比将趋于平稳，电子商务交易额有望保持持续增长。本研究从评估、检验、预测三个方面展开自媒体电商产业数字化发展研究，为进一步探究数字经济与电商、自媒体融合发展的内在规律提供了参考依据。

Abstract: Drawing on digital economy development data from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across China, this study employs the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to identify two key indicators—namely, the proportion of enterprises engaged in e-commerce transactions and the total e-commerce transaction volume—and subsequently utilizes a structural equation model to examine their respective impacts on digital economy development. In parallel, taking Anhui Province as a case study, the historical trajectories of these two indicators are analyzed, and the ARIMA model is applied to forecast their future trends. The projection results indicate that the proportion of e-commerce-active enterprises in Anhui Province is expected to level off in the coming period, whereas the total e-commerce transaction volume is projected to maintain a sustained upward growth trajectory. By integrating evaluation, empirical verification, and predictive analysis, this study offers a comprehensive investigation into the digital development of the self-media e-commerce industry, thereby providing a valuable empirical reference for further exploring the intrinsic mechanisms governing the integrated development of the digital economy, e-commerce, and self-media ecosystems.