湖北省阳新县暴雨(强降雨)地质灾害风险阈值研究

Study on Risk Threshold of Geological Disasters Induced by Heavy Rainfall in Yangxin County, Hubei Province

摘要: 本文对阳新县的地质灾害隐患点信息和地质灾害信息进行汇总，并对地质灾害的种类进行分类，确定不同种类地质灾害的重点防范区；应用阳新县国家站降水资料(1974~2024年)、区域站降水资料(2014~2024年)和地质灾害资料，研究重点防范区暴雨(强降雨)与不同种类地质灾害发生的关系，确定了暴雨风险阈值，建立了不同种类地质灾害的致灾模型，并应用2025年全年的降水资料对模型进行检验，结果表明：不是所有中高风险都会导致灾害发生，但灾害的发生，在模型结果里会有所提示，该研究成果为预警精准化提供核心定量依据，效果显著。

Abstract: This paper summarizes information on geological disaster hidden danger points and geological disasters in Yangxin County, classifies the types of geological disasters, and identifies key prevention zones for different types of geological disasters. Using precipitation data from national stations (1974~2024) and regional stations (2014~2024) in Yangxin County, along with geological disaster data, the study investigates the relationship between heavy rainfall (intense precipitation) and the occurrence of different types of geological disasters in key prevention zones. The rainfall risk thresholds are determined, and disaster-inducing models for different types of geological disasters are established. The models are validated using precipitation data for the entire year of 2025. The results show that not all moderate-to-high risk events lead to disasters; however, disaster occurrences are indicated in the model outputs. The research provides core quantitative support for precise early warning, demonstrating significant practical effects.