面向完整性管理的城镇气源管道风险评价与管控研究

Research on Risk Assessment and Control of Urban Gas Pipeline for Integrity Management

摘要: 气源管道作为城镇燃气输配系统的上游关键环节，其安全运行直接关系到城市能源供应保障和公共安全。然而，现有管道风险评价规范主要基于长输管道特点构建，在评价指标体系、指标权重分配等方面与气源管道存在差异，因此现有长输管道和城镇燃气管网风险评价方法难以直接适用于气源管道。鉴于此，本文构建了一套包含181项底层指标的气源管道半定量风险评价体系。该体系采用“失效可能性 × 失效后果”的风险评价模型，运用序关系法确定指标权重，建立了五级风险分级标准。将该体系应用于西南某地区气源管道，所评价管道25个管段中，低风险管段占80.0%，较低风险管段占20.0%，无较高风险及高风险管段。基于评价结果，从风险分级管控与资源配置优化、自然灾害防控等维度提出了风险管理建议，为气源管道的安全管理提供了理论依据和实践参考。

Abstract: As the upstream key link of urban gas transmission and distribution system, the safe operation of gas source pipeline is directly related to urban energy supply security and public safety. However, the existing pipeline risk assessment specifications are mainly based on the characteristics of long-distance pipelines, which are different from gas source pipelines in terms of evaluation index system and index weight distribution. Therefore, the existing risk assessment methods for long-distance pipelines and urban gas pipeline networks are difficult to be directly applied to gas source pipelines. In view of this, this paper constructs a semi-quantitative risk assessment system for gas source pipelines, which includes 181 underlying indicators. The system adopts the risk evaluation model of “failure possibility × failure consequence”, uses the order relation method to determine the index weight, and establishes the five-level risk classification standard. The system was applied to a gas source pipeline in a southwest region. Among the 25 pipeline sections evaluated, 80.0% were low-risk pipeline sections, 20.0% were lower-risk pipeline sections, and there were no higher-risk and high-risk pipeline sections. Based on the evaluation results, risk management suggestions are put forward from the dimensions of risk classification control and resource allocation optimization, natural disaster prevention and control, which provides theoretical basis and practical reference for the safety management of gas source pipelines.