终末期癌症患者生存期预测工具的研究进展
Research Progress on Survival Prediction Tools for Patients with Terminal Cancer
DOI: 10.12677/acm.2026.1693047, PDF,   
作者: 刘蒙恩, 庞 敏, 盛立军*：山东第一医科大学第三附属医院安宁疗护中心，山东 济南
关键词: 终末期癌症；生存期预测；安宁疗护；预后模型；多维度评估；Terminal Cancer； Survival Prediction； Hospice Care； Prognostic Model； Multidimensional Assessment
摘要: 准确预测终末期癌症患者的生存期是安宁疗护实践中的核心环节，对于优化医疗资源配置、制定个体化照护计划及指导医患沟通具有重要意义。近年来，国内外已发展出多种生存期预测工具，根据其指标构成可分为主观指标量表、客观指标量表、主客观结合量表三大类。本文系统综述各类预测工具的研究进展，重点比较其预测效能，并从多维度理论框架探讨新型预后指标的研究方向，最后展望未来发展趋势，以期为我国安宁疗护实践提供参考。
Abstract: Accurate prediction of survival time in patients with terminal cancer is a core component of hospice care practice, playing a critical role in optimizing healthcare resource allocation, developing individualized care plans, and guiding clinician-patient communication. In recent years, a variety of survival prediction tools have been developed both domestically and internationally. Based on their indicator composition, these tools can be categorized into three major types: subjective indicator scales, objective indicator scales, and combined subjective-objective scales. This article systematically reviews the research progress of various prediction tools, with a focus on comparing their predictive performance, discusses potential directions for novel prognostic indicators within a multidimensional theoretical framework, and finally outlines future development trends, aiming to provide a reference for hospice care practice in China.
文章引用：刘蒙恩, 庞敏, 盛立军. 终末期癌症患者生存期预测工具的研究进展[J]. 临床医学进展, 2026, 16(9): 291-300. https://doi.org/10.12677/acm.2026.1693047

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