气候变化情景下抽水蓄能电站安全风险评估与市场应用研究——以湖南攸县抽水蓄能电站为例

Research on Safety Risk Assessment and Market Application of Pumped Storage Power Stations under Climate Change Scenarios —A Case Study of Youxian Pumped Storage Power Station in Hunan Province

摘要: 在全球气候变暖、极端气象事件频发的大背景下，抽水蓄能电站作为新型电力系统中核心调峰储能载体，其运行安全与发展布局受气候环境变化的深刻影响。本文以湖南攸县抽水蓄能电站为实证案例，依托该电站气候可行性论证报告的实测数据、气象序列及灾害评估成果，系统分析区域气候变化特征，识别暴雨、干旱、雷电、高低温、冰雪冰冻等气象灾害带来的工程安全风险，量化各类风险的影响机制与危害程度；结合新能源发展趋势与电力市场需求，探究气候变化情景下抽水蓄能电站的市场应用价值、发展机遇与现存挑战，并针对性提出风险防控技术方案、运营优化策略及市场拓展路径，为同类抽水蓄能电站在气候变化背景下的安全运维、规划建设与市场化发展提供参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global warming and frequent extreme meteorological events, pumped storage power stations serve as core peak-shaving and energy storage carriers in the new power system, whose operational safety and development layout are profoundly affected by climatic and environmental changes. Taking the Youxian Pumped Storage Power Station in Hunan Province as an empirical case, this paper draws on measured data, meteorological time series and disaster assessment results from the climate feasibility demonstration report of the power station to systematically analyze regional climate change characteristics. It identifies engineering safety risks induced by meteorological disasters including heavy rain, drought, lightning, high and low temperatures, ice and snow freezing, and quantifies the impact mechanisms and hazard levels of various risks. Combined with the development trend of new energy and power market demands, this study explores the market application value, development opportunities and existing challenges of pumped storage power stations under climate change scenarios. Targeted technical schemes for risk prevention and control, operation optimization strategies and market expansion paths are proposed, providing references for the safe operation and maintenance, planning and construction, as well as market-oriented development of similar pumped storage power stations amid climate change.