2025年6月14日宁波强雷雨天气过程分析

Diagnostic Analysis of a Severe Thunderstorm Event over Ningbo on 14 June 2025

摘要: 目的：丰富宁波地区机场强雷雨个例的研究成果，完善栎社机场雷暴大风天气的诊断分析体系，为机场应对同类极端天气、保障航空运行安全高效提供切实可行的参考。方法：基于ERA5再分析资料、浙江省自动站资料、宁波机场自动气象观测系统(AWOS)资料及多普勒天气雷达资料，对本过程进行诊断分析。结果：此次过程呈现“高空槽前–中低层西南急流输送–台风环流水汽补给”的多尺度环流配置特征，本场低层辐合、高层辐散且地面存在辐合线，动力抬升条件充足；K指数达31℃，CAPE值高达946 J/kg，低层暖湿、中高层干冷，不稳定能量充足。结论：此次过程为与高空槽相结合的台风远距离降水，各动力、水汽及不稳定条件的协同配置，为强对流发展提供了有利支撑。

Abstract: Objective: To enrich case-based studies of severe thunderstorm events at airports in the Ningbo region, improve the diagnostic framework for thunderstorm gale weather at Ningbo Lishe Airport, and provide practical references for enhancing aviation safety and operational efficiency under similar extreme weather conditions. Methods: This study conducts a diagnostic analysis of the event based on ERA5 reanalysis data, surface automatic weather station data from Zhejiang Province, Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS) data from Ningbo Airport, and Doppler weather radar data. Results: The event exhibited a multi-scale circulation configuration characterized by an upper-level trough, mid- to low-level southwesterly jet moisture transport, and moisture supply from a typhoon circulation. The local environment featured low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and a surface convergence line, providing favorable dynamic lifting conditions. The K-index reached 31˚C, and CAPE values peaked at 946 J/kg, indicating a warm-moist lower atmosphere and a dry-cold mid-to-upper troposphere, with sufficient convective instability. Conclusions: This event was a remote precipitation process associated with a typhoon interacting with an upper-level trough. The synergistic configuration of dynamic forcing, moisture supply, and atmospheric instability provided favorable conditions for the development of severe convection.