成渝地区双城经济圈科技创新策源能力评估与优化——基于“条件–过程–结果”框架的管理分析

An Evaluation and Optimization of the Science-Technology Innovation Source-Generating Capacity in Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle—An Management Analysis Based on the “Conditions-Process-Outcomes” Framework

摘要: 科技创新策源能力是驱动科技自立自强、推动新质生产力和高质量发展的关键能力。以“条件–过程–结果”为框架，构建了涵盖20项指标的评价体系，综合运用熵权法 + TOPSIS的综合评价方法，以及空间自相关分析方法，基于2014~2022年数据，对成渝地区双城经济圈42个地级市(区)的科技创新策源能力进行了评价。结果显示：成渝双城经济圈科技创新策源能力整体呈稳步上升态势，但城市间分化显著；创新条件维度对策源能力的贡献最大，却呈现“投入强–转化弱”的结构性矛盾；全局空间自相关呈现不显著情况，成都、重庆主城区以显著优势位居区域首位，与周边城市的协同联动不足、效应不够。从创新管理视角看，本研究实现了量化识别各城市在“条件–过程–结果”三个维度中的结构性短板，可为管理者精准定位创新的薄弱环节，为创新资源的精准配置与制度协同设计提供了可操作的决策依据，体现了以系统思维优化创新治理的方法论价值，也为成渝地区提升科技创新策源能力提供了实证依据。

Abstract: Scientific and technological innovation origination capacity is a core capability that drives sci-tech self-reliance and self-improvement, and facilitates the development of new-quality productive forces and high-quality economic growth. Based on the “conditions-process-results” framework, this study constructs an evaluation system comprising 20 indicators. Adopting the entropy weight-TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method and spatial autocorrelation analysis, this paper evaluates the scientific and technological innovation origination capacity of 42 prefecture-level cities (districts) in the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle using statistical data from 2014 to 2022. The results demonstrate that the overall innovation origination capacity of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle presents a steady upward trend, with significant differentiation among cities. The innovation condition dimension contributes the most to origination capacity, while a prominent structural contradiction of “strong input but weak achievement transformation” exists in the region. The global spatial autocorrelation is statistically insignificant. The main urban areas of Chengdu and Chongqing rank first in the region with remarkable advantages, but they suffer from insufficient collaborative linkage and weak spillover effects with surrounding cities. From the perspective of innovation management, this study quantitatively identifies the structural shortcomings of each city in the three dimensions of “condition-process-result”. It enables managers to accurately locate weak links in regional innovation, and provides operable decision-making basis for the precise allocation of innovation resources and the collaborative design of institutional systems. This research embodies the methodological value of optimizing innovation governance with systematic thinking, and also provides empirical evidence for enhancing the scientific and technological innovation origination capacity of the Chengdu-Chongqing region.