基于熵值法的山东省区域金融风险测度研究

A Study on Measuring Regional Financial Risk in Shandong Province Based on the Entropy Method

摘要: 区域金融风险的累积与爆发不仅影响地方经济稳定，还可能通过传导机制威胁国家整体金融安全。本文从政府、企业、银行、证券、保险、房地产以及宏观经济因素等六个方面中选择共18个指标，构建一套科学的区域金融风险综合评价指标体系，运用熵权法构测度山东省区域金融风险指数，分析山东省区域金融风险的演变特征及差异，研究表明，2011至2023年间，山东省区域金融风险指数整体呈上升趋势。其演变历程可划分为三个阶段：2011~2014年为风险波动幅度较小，整体上处于低风险水平；2015~2018年，受供给侧结构性改革去杠杆政策与新旧动能接续转换的双重影响，风险进入快速上升期；2019~2023年，则因突发公共卫生事件的冲击以及债务规模持续扩张，区域金融风险维持在高水平。

Abstract: The accumulation and outbreak of regional financial risks not only affect the stability of local economy, but also threaten the overall financial security of the country through transmission mechanism. This paper selects a total of 18 indicators from six aspects, including government, enterprises, banks, securities, insurance, real estate and macroeconomic factors, constructs a scientific comprehensive evaluation index system of regional financial risks, measures the regional financial risk index of Shandong Province by using entropy weight method, and analyzes the evolution characteristics and differences of regional financial risks in Shandong Province. The research shows that the overall regional financial risk index of Shandong Province is on the rise from 2011 to 2023. Its evolution process can be divided into three stages: from 2011 to 2014, the risk fluctuation range is small, and the overall risk level is low; from 2015 to 2018, due to the dual influence of the supply-side structural reform deleveraging policy and the continuous conversion of old and new kinetic energy, the risk entered a period of rapid rise; from 2019 to 2023, due to the impact of public health emergencies and the continuous expansion of debt scale, regional financial risks remained at a high level.