厦门机场冬春季低能见度天气过程对比分析

A Comparative Analysis of Low Visibility Weather Processes at Xiamen Airport in Winter and Spring

摘要: 选取2021~2025年厦门高崎国际机场4次典型冬春季平流海雾低能见度天气过程，从环流形势、层结结构、地面风场演变及主流数值预报模式预报性能四个方面开展系统性对比分析。结果表明：(1) 四次大雾过程均受控于“高空干冷、低空暖湿、地面低压倒槽”典型环流配置，近地面沿海弱冷空气渗透是平流海雾登陆机场的核心触发机制，东路沿海冷空气路径对厦门机场雾情影响最为显著；(2) 近地面稳定逆温层是大雾长时间维持的关键层结条件，低逆温层底更易催生强浓雾，但全球ECMWF模式对浅薄近地面逆温层识别能力存在明显短板，易出现漏报；(3) 地面东北风是海雾向机场输送的关键风向，风向转为东北后20 min~1 h内机场能见度将快速大幅下降，1~3 m/s东北风最利于雾团稳定维持。基于多过程对比提炼本场冬春季海雾预报四大关键着眼点，可为沿海机场低能见度天气预警、航空气象保障提供技术参考。

Abstract: Four typical winter-spring advection sea fog events with low visibility from 2021 to 2025 at Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport are analyzed from circulation pattern, stratification, surface wind and ECMWF forecast performance. Results show (1) all fog events feature the circulation pattern of dry-cold upper air, warm-humid lower air and surface low-pressure inverted trough. The infiltration of weak cold air along the near-surface coast is the core triggering mechanism for advection sea fog to make landfall at airports, and the cold air path along the eastern coast has the most significant impact on fog conditions at Xiamen Airport. (2) A stable near-surface inversion layer is a key stratification condition for the long-term persistence of dense fog. The bottom of a low inversion layer is more likely to generate dense fog. However, the global ECMWF model has a significant shortcoming in its ability to identify shallow near-surface inversion layers, which can easily lead to missed reports. (3) Northeasterly winds at ground level are the key wind direction for transporting sea fog to airports. After the wind direction turns northeast, airport visibility will drop rapidly and significantly within 20 minutes to 1 hour. Northeasterly winds of 1~3 m/s are most conducive to the stable maintenance of fog masses. Based on multi-process comparisons, four key points for sea fog forecasting in winter and spring have been extracted for this airport, which can provide technical reference for low visibility weather warnings and aviation meteorological support at coastal airports.