近七十年霸州市汛期气温、高温演变特征及农业灾害响应研究

Evolution Characteristics of Temperature and High Temperature during Flood Season and Their Responses to Agricultural Disasters in Bazhou City over the Past Seventy Years

摘要: 利用河北省霸州市国家基本气象站1957~2024年共68年观测数据，对霸州汛期(6~8月)的气温和高温日数等关键气候要素进行长期气候变化分析。结果表明：在研究时段内，霸州汛期平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温，均呈上升趋势。汛期平均气温每十年上升约0.22℃，20世纪90年代后进入偏暖期，6月上升速率最快，每十年上升约0.27℃。近年来，极端性高温事件频率明显上升，连续三天高温过程占比达43.9%。该结论明确本地汛期升温及持续性高温频发引发农作物高温热害的危害机制，可为本地汛期高温热害气象预警指标建立、夏玉米等作物田间防灾农事调控、县域农业灾害防御规划制定提供长时序气候数据支撑，助力区域农业稳产减灾。

Abstract: Using 68 years of observational data (1957~2024) from the Baizhou National Basic Meteorological Station in Hebei Province, this study conducted a long-term climate change analysis on key climatic elements during Baizhou’s flood season (June~August), including temperature and the number of high temperature days. Results show that during the study period, average temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, extreme maximum temperature, and extreme minimum temperature all exhibited upward trends. The average temperature during the flood season increased by approximately 0.22˚C per decade, with a notably warmer phase beginning after the 1990s. June showed the fastest warming rate, increasing by about 0.27˚C per decade. In recent years, the frequency of extreme high temperature events has significantly increased, with high temperature lasting at least three consecutive days accounting for 43.9%. This conclusion clearly shows the mechanism by which frequent warming and prolonged high temperatures during the local rainy season cause high temperature damage to crops. It can provide long-term climate data support for setting up meteorological warning indicators for high temperature damage during the rainy season, for field disaster prevention and farming adjustments for crops like summer corn, and for making county-level agricultural disaster prevention plans, helping to stabilize and reduce risks in regional agriculture.