浙江省市域老龄化的时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Aging at the Municipal Level in Zhejiang Province

摘要: 人口老龄化是浙江省经济社会可持续发展面临的重大现实问题。识别浙江省人口老龄化的时空演化规律及其驱动机制，对于因地制宜制定应对策略具有重要意义。本文基于2000年、2010年、2020年三期人口普查数据，构建涵盖65岁及以上人口占比、老少比、老年抚养比三项指标的老龄化综合评价体系，运用熵值法测算浙江省11个地级市的老龄化综合得分，结合全局空间自相关、冷热点分析考察2002~2022年浙江省市域老龄化的时空演化格局，并采用全局OLS回归与地理加权回归模型，从经济发展、人口结构、公共服务三个维度识别核心驱动因素及其空间异质性。

Abstract: Population aging represents a major practical challenge facing the sustainable socio-economic development of Zhejiang Province. Identifying the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of population aging in Zhejiang Province is of great significance for formulating tailored response strategies based on local conditions. Based on three rounds of national census data from 2000,2010, and 2020, this study constructs a comprehensive aging evaluation system encompassing three indicators: the proportion of the population aged 65 and above, the elderly-to-youth ratio, and the elderly dependency ratio; employs the entropy method to calculate comprehensive aging scores for the 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province; utilizes global spatial autocorrelation and cold-hot spot analysis to examine the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of aging across municipal jurisdictions in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2022; and applies global OLS regression and geographically weighted regression models to identify core driving factors and their spatial heterogeneity across three dimensions: economic development, demographic structure, and public services.