新疆地区颠簸特征分析

Analysis of Turbulence Characteristics in Xinjiang

摘要: 本文基于2018~2023年新疆地区3371份话音航空器报告，统计分析了空中颠簸强度、时空分布及天气成因。结果表明：(1) 新疆地区颠簸以中度为主，占比82%，强颠簸、轻度颠簸分别占15%、3%。时间维度上，2018~2023年颠簸频次整体逐年上升；春季颠簸最多(34%)、冬季次之(25%)，3、4月为全年高发时段，8月频次最低；昼间颠簸远多于夜间，存在08:00、15:00、22:00三个高发峰值，凌晨02:00~06:00最少。(2) 颠簸集中于8 km以上高空(35%)与3~6 km中层(32%)；整体呈现西多东少、 南多北少格局。。(3) 成因统计显示，急流是颠簸主导诱因(52%)，高空槽次之(20%)；3 km以下颠簸多由东南风层导致，3 km以上以急流、高空槽为主。春冬季急流与东南风层活跃、天气系统频发，颠簸显著偏多，夏季急流减弱、系统活动少，颠簸频次偏低。研究结果可为新疆航线颠簸预警、航空气象保障提供数据支撑。

Abstract: Based on 3371 voice pilot reports collected by Xinjiang aviation meteorological departments from 2018 to 2023, this paper statistically analyzes the intensity, spatiotemporal distribution and meteorological causes of enroute turbulence over Xinjiang. The results show that: (1) Moderate turbulence dominates all turbulence events in Xinjiang, accounting for 82%, followed by severe turbulence (15%) and light turbulence (3%). From the temporal perspective, the overall frequency of turbulence shows an upward trend year by year during 2018~2023. Turbulence occurs most frequently in spring (34%), followed by winter (25%). March and April witness the highest annual turbulence frequency, while August sees the minimum events. Turbulence is far more frequent in daytime than at night, with three peak periods around 08:00, 15:00 and 22:00 Beijing Time, and the least turbulence occurs between 02:00 and 06:00. (2) Turbulence mainly concentrates above 8 km (35%) and within the layer of 3~6 km (32%); and it occurs more frequently in the west than in the east and more in the south than in the north. (3) Statistical analysis on turbulence causes indicates that jet stream is the primary trigger of turbulence (52%), followed by upper trough (20%). Turbulence below 3 km is mostly induced by southeasterly wind layers, whereas turbulence above 3 km is mainly caused by jet streams and upper troughs. Jet streams and low-to-mid level southeasterly wind layers are active with frequent synoptic systems in spring and winter, leading to abundant turbulence events. In summer, jet streams weaken and synoptic activities decrease, resulting in low turbulence frequency. The research findings can provide data support for turbulence early warning and aviation meteorological service guarantee over Xinjiang air routes.