房价波动对区域金融风险的影响机制研究——基于管理工程视角

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Housing Price Fluctuations on Regional Financial Risks—A Management Engineering Perspective

摘要: 在经历长期高速扩张之后，我国房地产业累积的价格波动隐患逐步显性化，房价波动已上升为影响区域金融稳定的重要因素。本文基于管理工程的现代全面风险管理思想，从银行信贷、产业链传导与地方政府债务三条路径，探究房价波动向区域金融风险传导的内在机理及区域异质性。研究表明：房价波动通过抵押品价值重估与信贷扩张之间的正向反馈，加剧了金融体系的脆弱性；同时借助产业链关联与土地财政渠道，将风险压力延伸至更广泛的金融层面；上述效应在经济发达地区与债务率偏高的中西部省份之间呈现显著分化，区域异质性比较明显。从管理工程的系统优化视角提出如下政策建议：信贷调控有必要从统一标准转向分层施策、要对抵押品的价值进行动态监管、建立联防联控机制、应加快推进土地财政向税收财政的过渡、构建高质量的区域金融风险预警管理平台等。

Abstract: After a long period of rapid expansion, the hidden dangers of price fluctuations accumulated in China’s real estate industry have gradually become apparent, and housing price fluctuations have risen to an important factor affecting regional financial stability. Based on the three paths of bank credit, industrial chain transmission and local government debt, and drawing on the modern comprehensive risk management thinking of management engineering, this paper explores the internal mechanism through which housing price fluctuations transmit to regional financial risks, as well as the regional heterogeneity of this process. The research shows that housing price fluctuations aggravate the vulnerability of the financial system through the positive feedback between the revaluation of collateral value and credit expansion. At the same time, with the help of industrial chain linkage and land finance channels, the risk pressure is extended to a broader financial level. The above effects are significantly differentiated between economically developed regions and central and western provinces with high debt rates, and the regional heterogeneity is quite pronounced. From the perspective of system optimization in management engineering, this paper puts forward policy recommendations including the shift of credit regulation from uniform standards to tiered implementation, the dynamic supervision of collateral values, the establishment of a joint prevention and control mechanism, the accelerated transition from land finance to tax finance, and the construction of a high-quality regional financial risk early warning management platform.