房价波动对区域金融风险的影响机制研究——基于管理工程思维的风险识别与防控框架

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Housing Price Fluctuations on Regional Financial Risks—A Risk Identification and Prevention Framework Based on Management Engineering Thinking

摘要: 在经历长期高速扩张之后，我国房地产业累积的价格波动隐患逐步显性化，房价波动已上升为影响区域金融稳定的重要因素。本文基于银行信贷、产业链传导与地方政府债务三条路径，探究房价波动向区域金融风险传导的内在机理，并关注这一过程的区域异质性。研究表明：房价波动通过抵押品价值重估与信贷扩张之间的正向反馈，加剧了金融体系的脆弱性；同时借助产业链关联与土地财政渠道，将风险压力延伸至更广泛的金融层面。值得指出的是，上述效应在经济发达地区与债务率偏高的中西部省份之间呈现显著分化，区域异质性构成理解与应对风险的关键维度。从管理工程的视角来看，上述传导过程可以被视为一个多输入、多输出的复杂风险系统，对其的预警和管控需要引入系统工程的思维方式和方法。基于此，本文从管理工程的视角出发，提出了差异化调控的政策取向以及可以量化的风险预警指标体系，从而为精准防范区域金融风险提供相应的决策支持。

Abstract: After a long period of rapid expansion, the hidden dangers of price fluctuations accumulated in China’s real estate industry have gradually become apparent, and house price fluctuations have risen to an important factor affecting regional financial stability. Based on the three paths of bank credit, industrial chain transmission and local government debt, this paper explores the internal mechanism of the transmission of housing price fluctuation to regional financial risk, and pays attention to the regional heterogeneity of this process. The research shows that the fluctuation of housing price aggravates the vulnerability of the financial system through the positive feedback between the revaluation of collateral value and credit expansion. At the same time, with the help of industrial chain linkage and land finance channels, the risk pressure is extended to a broader financial level. It is worth noting that the above effects are significantly differentiated between economically developed regions and central and western provinces with high debt rates, and regional heterogeneity constitutes a key dimension for understanding and responding to risks. From the perspective of management engineering, the above conduction process can be regarded as a multi-input and multi-output complex risk system, and its early warning and control need to introduce the thinking mode and method of system engineering. Based on this, from the perspective of management engineering, this paper puts forward the policy orientation of differentiated regulation and the quantifiable risk early warning index system, so as to provide corresponding decision support for accurately preventing regional financial risks.