基于近三十年长序列气象观测资料的泰安市露营适宜度评价模型构建及时空演变规律探究

Construction of Tai’an City’s Camping Suitability Evaluation Model and Exploration of Its Spatiotemporal Evolution Based on Nearly 30 Years of Long-Term Meteorological Observation Data

摘要: 国内户外文旅产业持续扩张背景下，气象环境条件直接决定露营活动的体验质量与安全保障水平。文章选取泰安国家一般气象观测站(站号54827) 1994~2024年连续三十年逐日气象观测序列，筛选日均气温、逐日降雨量、平均风力、空气相对湿度、日照时长五类核心气象指标，建立适配泰安本地气候特征的露营气象适宜度评价模型(CMI)。研究采用极值短板综合判定法划分露营适宜等级，借助数理统计手段分析该区域露营适宜度月度分布特征与逐年演变趋势。分析结果显示：第一，泰安地区露营适宜水平存在明显单峰值季节分异，5月综合气象条件最适合露营，12月至次年2月整体气象环境不支持户外露营；第二，三十年研究周期内，极高适宜(I级)露营天数年际差别显著，年度天数区间处于1~29天；经5年滑动平均平滑处理后可见，2005年之后优质露营天数整体呈现缓慢抬升走势，2019年达到三十年最高值；第三，无极端气象事件发生时，空气湿度与日照时长协同构成的光温舒适条件，是左右露营游玩感受的首要气象要素。本次研究成果能够为泰山全域户外旅游规划、露营基地经营统筹、市民户外出行决策提供客观的数据支撑与气象理论依据。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the continuous expansion of the domestic outdoor cultural and tourism industry, weather conditions directly determine the quality and safety of camping experiences. This article selects daily meteorological observation sequences from the Tai’an National General Meteorological Observation Station (Station No. 54827) over thirty consecutive years from 1994 to 2024, focusing on five core meteorological indicators: average daily temperature, daily rainfall, average wind speed, relative humidity, and sunshine duration. A camping meteorological suitability evaluation model (CMI) that fits Tai’an’s local climate characteristics was established. The study uses the extreme shortfall comprehensive judgment method to classify levels of camping suitability and applies statistical methods to analyze the monthly distribution characteristics and annual evolution trends of camping suitability in the region. The analysis shows: first, camping suitability in Tai’an displays a clear single-peak seasonal differentiation, with May having the most suitable overall meteorological conditions for camping, while the period from December to February of the following year generally does not support outdoor camping; second, over the thirty-year study period, the number of days with extremely high suitability (Level I) for camping varies significantly from year to year, ranging from 1 to 29 days per year; after a 5-year moving average smoothing, it can be seen that after 2005, the number of high-quality camping days has shown a gradual upward trend, reaching the highest value in thirty years in 2019; third, when no extreme weather events occur, the combination of air humidity and sunshine duration creating a comfortable light-temperature condition is the primary meteorological factor affecting the camping experience. The results of this study can provide objective data support and meteorological theoretical basis for overall outdoor tourism planning in Mount Tai, the management of camping sites, and citizens’ decisions for outdoor trips.