资源依赖视角下绿色金融发展对西北地区经济韧性的提升作用

The Enhancement Effect of Green Finance Development on Economic Resilience in Northwest China from the Perspective of Resource Dependence

摘要: 在“双碳”目标与区域协调背景下，本文以2015~2024年陕、甘、青、宁、新五个省级行政区面板数据为样本，基于绿色金融改革创新试验区分期设立这一准自然实验，构建包含经济增长水平与增长稳定性的经济韧性综合指数，采用双向固定效应模型考察绿色金融试点政策对经济韧性的影响。研究发现，西北地区的经济抗冲击能力会因为绿色金融试点政策落地明显上涨，且剔除影响因素后依然成立，地区对本地资源的依赖程度不会降低政策的正面作用，反而会有助推调节的作用，当地传统资源产业占经济总量比重更高的区域里，绿色金融相关举措和传统产业开展绿色升级改造工作能够互相配合、共同发挥作用，各个省级行政区的经济抗冲击能力存在较大差距，绿色金融带来的实际作用，会产生不同表现。受限于样本规模与处理组数量，本文结论属于探索性实证证据，未来研究可进一步扩大样本范围并构建更精细的绿色金融连续指标加以验证。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the dual-carbon goals and the regional coordinated development strategy, this paper takes the panel data of five provincial-level administrative regions in Northwest China, namely Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang, from 2015 to 2024 as the research sample. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the phased establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones, this paper constructs a composite economic resilience index covering both the level and the stability of economic growth, and employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine the impact of the green finance pilot policy on economic resilience. The results show that the implementation of the green finance pilot policy significantly enhances the economic resilience of Northwest China, and this conclusion remains valid after excluding interfering factors. Resource dependence does not weaken the positive effect of the policy; on the contrary, it plays a reinforcing moderating role. In regions where traditional resource-based industries account for a larger share of the economy, green finance measures and the green upgrading of traditional industries can complement and reinforce each other. Economic resilience varies considerably across provinces, and the actual effects of green finance differ accordingly. Limited by the sample size and the number of treated units, the conclusions of this paper constitute exploratory empirical evidence; future research may further expand the sample scope and construct more refined continuous indicators of green finance for verification.