新质生产力对资本错配的影响效应与作用机制研究

Impact Effects and Underlying Mechanisms of New Quality Productive Forces on Capital Misallocation

摘要: 新质生产力以生产要素创新性配置为核心特征，其对资本错配的影响是经济高质量发展阶段的重要命题。本文基于2010~2023年中国265个地级市面板数据，测算新质生产力与资本错配指数，采用双向固定效应模型检验二者的因果关系与作用机制。研究表明，新质生产力能够显著改善资本错配，该结论经内生性处理与多重稳健性检验后依然成立。创新创业活力提升与产业结构升级是核心传导路径，且该效应在不同区域与城市类型中存在异质性。本文结论为因地制宜发展新质生产力、优化资本配置效率提供了经验依据。

Abstract: With the innovative allocation of production factors as its core feature, new quality productive forces have a significant bearing on capital misallocation—a critical issue in the high-quality development stage of the economy. Drawing on panel data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China over the period 2010~2023, this paper constructs indices for new quality productive forces and capital misallocation, and employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine their causal relationship and underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that new quality productive forces significantly mitigate capital misallocation, and this finding remains robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting a series of rigorous robustness checks. The revitalization of innovation and entrepreneurship, along with the industrial structure upgrading, are identified as the core transmission channels. Moreover, the effect exhibits heterogeneity across different regions and city types. These findings provide empirical grounds for fostering new quality productive forces in line with local conditions and for optimizing capital allocation efficiency.