小型模块化压水堆静态投资成本估算方法研究

Research on Overnight Capital Cost Estimation Methods of Small Modular Pressurized Water Reactors

摘要: 小型模块化压水堆在退役煤电厂址替代、海岛及偏远地区供电、工业供热等领域具有独特优势，但其成本估算存在参数不透明、对国外数据较为依赖等问题。本文建立了面向国内核电项目划分体系的自下而上成本估算方法，该方法以国内核电项目划分导则为总体框架，结合国内典型压水堆的调研数据建立关键设计参数与主要设备之间的成本关联模型，实现设计参数与成本之间的映射。以VOYGR-12小型模块化压水堆为例进行验证，并分析了多模块公用设施分摊、一回路简化及批量建造的学习效应对成本的影响。估算结果表明，采用传统一回路设计的VOYGR单模块核电站单位投资成本高达7.06万元/kW，规模扩大至12模块后单位投资成本降至2.34万元/kW，降幅接近70%。对于VOYGR-12核电站，采用一回路简化设计使单位投资成本下降约4%，高学习率情景较低学习率情景的单位投资成本下降7.1%~7.7%，最终单位投资成本可降至2.08万元/kW。本文估算得到VOYGR-12单位投资成本的合理区间为2.08~2.34万元/kW，该结果略高于国内三代大型压水堆(1.4~1.6万元/kW)，但显著低于传统缩放方法的估算结果，表明多模块公用设施分摊、一回路简化与批量建造的学习效应可有效降低小型模块化反应堆的静态投资成本。本文方法可为同类核电项目的投资估算与方案对比提供技术参考。

Abstract: Small modular pressurized water reactors present unique advantages in repurposing decommissioned coal-fired power plant sites, supplying power to islands and remote areas, and providing industrial heat. However, their cost estimation is currently hampered by opaque parameter data and heavy reliance on foreign datasets. This paper develops a bottom-up cost estimation method aligned with China’s nuclear power project classification system. Taking domestic guidelines for nuclear power project classification as the framework, a cost correlation model between key design parameters and major equipment is established based on survey data of typical domestic pressurized water reactors, realizing the mapping from design parameters to construction costs. Taking VOYGR-12 as the research object, this paper analyzes the influences of multi-module cost sharing of shared facilities, primary loop simplification and the learning effect from batch construction. The overnight capital cost (OCC) of a single module with conventional primary loop is 7.06 ten thousand CNY/kW, which drops to 2.34 ten thousand CNY/kW for a 12-module configuration, a reduction of nearly 70%. For VOYGR-12, simplified primary loop cuts the OCC by about 4%, and the OCC under a high learning rate is 7.1%~7.7% lower than that under a low learning rate, with the minimum value reaching 2.08 ten thousand CNY/kW. The reasonable OCC range of VOYGR-12 is 2.08~2.34 ten thousand CNY/kW. This value is slightly higher than that of domestic third-generation large pressurized water reactors (1.4~1.6 ten thousand CNY/kW), but far more accurate than results from traditional scaling methods. Multi-module cost sharing, primary loop simplification and batch construction learning effect can effectively reduce the OCC of small modular reactors. The proposed method can provide technical references for investment estimation and scheme comparison of similar nuclear power projects.