产业结构高级化的经济韧性效应——以中国东北地区为例

The Economic Resilience Effects of Industrial Structure Upgrading—Evidence from Northeast China

摘要: 本研究基于2000~2020年面板数据，测算中国东北地区产业结构高级化指数和经济韧性水平，分析了二者的时空格局与空间关联，并运用空间杜宾模型实证检验了产业结构高级化的经济韧性效应。研究发现：(1) 东北地区34个城市产业结构高级化水平呈先降后升的波动变化，空间上由2000年和2010年的低、中水平集聚向2020年的低、中、高水平明显分化的空间格局；经济韧性水平总体偏低，但持续提升趋势，空间上经济韧性由2000年的整体处于低水平逐渐演变为2020年的核心城市处于高水平，其他城市处于中等水平空间格局。(2) 双变量全局莫兰指数表明研究期间内二者的空间关联由空间分散演变为空间负相关。双变量局部莫兰指数表明研究期间二者局部空间集聚特征以“低–高”和“高–低”集聚为主。(3) 空间杜宾模型结果分析表明，东北地区产业结构高级化会对城市自身的经济韧性产生显著抑制作用，但其空间溢出作用不显著。

Abstract: Based on panel data from 2000 to 2020, this study measures the index of industrial structure upgrading and the level of economic resilience in Northeast China, analyzes their spatiotemporal patterns and spatial associations, and empirically examines the effect of industrial structure upgrading on economic resilience using a Spatial Durbin Model. The results show that: (1) The level of industrial structure upgrading across the 34 cities in Northeast China exhibits a fluctuating pattern of initial decline followed by an increase, with the spatial pattern evolving from clustering at low and medium levels in 2000 and 2010 to pronounced differentiation among low-, medium-, and high-level areas in 2020. The overall level of economic resilience remains relatively low but shows a continuous upward trend, with its spatial pattern gradually evolving from generally low levels in 2000 to a configuration in 2020 in which core cities exhibit high economic resilience while other cities remain at a medium level. (2) The bivariate global Moran’s I indicates that the spatial association between industrial structure upgrading and economic resilience evolved from spatial dispersion to a negative spatial correlation during the study period. The bivariate local Moran’s I further indicates that the local spatial clustering between the two variables was primarily characterized by “low-high” and “high-low” clusters during the study period. (3) The results of the Spatial Durbin Model indicate that industrial structure upgrading in Northeast China exerts a significant inhibitory effect on the economic resilience of individual cities, while its spatial spillover effect is not statistically significant.