基于层次分析–模糊综合评判法的鄂尔多斯盆地东缘上古生界泥页岩储层评价

Shale Reservoir Evaluation of Upper Paleozoic in the East Ordos Basin Based on AHP-FCE Method

摘要: 泥页岩储层评价是页岩气选区的基础工作，由于以往的泥页岩评价模型存在一定的不足，本文提出了基于层次结构分析(AHP)与模糊综合评判法(FCE)结合的评价模型。该模型兼顾了确定权重与模型选取两个重要问题，形成优势互补。本文选取了层次结构分析法确定权重，综合模糊评判作为评价模型。将此模型应用于鄂尔多斯盆地东缘上古生界泥页岩储层评价。选取了7个评价指标有机质含量(TOC)，干酪根类型，有机质成熟度(R_O)，有效孔隙度(Φ)，裂缝百分数，脆性矿物含量和厚度，采用了梯形函数描述评价指标的隶属度，然后用层次分析法确定了评价指标的权重。经过评价之后，认为鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界太原组泥页岩是有利储层。

Abstract: Shale gas reservoir evaluation is the foundation work of selections of shale gas. Since the prevenient shale evaluation model exist some shortcomings, the new evaluation model is proposed in this paper based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). The model taking into account the weight and model selection of two important points, has complementary advantages. The model chooses AHP to determine the weight, and adapts fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Then the model is adapted to the shale evaluation of Upper Paleozoic in the Eastern Margin of Ordos Basin. Evaluating indicators include organic carbon content (TOC), kerogen type, maturity of organic matter (R_O), effective drainage porosity, percent of crack, content of brittle mineral and thickness, using the trapezoid function description index membership and weight scales of assessment indices are determined by AHP. After evaluation, the conclusion is that the shale in the Taiyuan formation of Upper Paleozoic of Ordos basin is favorable reservoir.