基于复杂网络的大件运输安全风险耦合分析

Coupling Analysis of Highway Heavy Cargo Transportation Safety Risk Based on Complex Network Theory

摘要: 随着我国经济发展，大件运输需求快速增加，运输涉及超重、超大、超长等特殊要求，为从根源上厘清风险因素的动态交互性，本文运用复杂网络理论和耦合模型对大件运输安全事故风险展开量化分析。通过收集国内大件运输事故数据，运用扎根理论编码，结合24Model识别出84个致因因素、8个事故类型及254条致因链条。引入复杂网络理论建立风险耦合网络，分析得出该网络具有无标度与小世界特性。选择N-K模型定量分析风险耦合，发现参与耦合风险的因素越多，耦合值越大，且“人的不安全行为–物的不安全状态”子系统联系紧密，应重点防范两者耦合效应。基于风险解耦思想，结合耦合过程提出风险解耦策略，为大件运输安全风险管理提供参考。

Abstract: With the development of China’s economy, the demand for highway heavy cargo transportation has increased rapidly. Such transportation activities involve special requirements, including overweight, oversized, and overlength cargoes. To clarify the dynamic interactions among risk factors from a fundamental perspective, this study applies complex network theory and a coupling model to conduct a quantitative analysis of highway heavy cargo transportation safety risks. Based on collected data on domestic highway heavy cargo transportation accidents, grounded theory coding was employed, and the 24Model was integrated to identify 84 causal factors, 8 accident types, and 254 causal chains. Complex network theory was then introduced to construct a risk coupling network, and the results indicate that the network exhibits both scale-free and small-world characteristics. The N-K model was further adopted to quantitatively analyze risk coupling. The findings show that the coupling value increases as more risk factors participate in the coupling process. Moreover, the subsystem composed of “unsafe human behaviors” and “unsafe conditions of objects” demonstrates particularly strong interactions, suggesting that the coupling effects between these two dimensions should be prioritized in risk prevention. Based on the concept of risk decoupling and the identified coupling process, this study proposes corresponding risk decoupling strategies, providing a reference for safety risk management in highway heavy cargo transportation.