人工智能如何重塑制造业岗位结构？——基于资本配置与市场竞争的双重视角

How Does Artificial Intelligence Reshape the Job Structure of Manufacturing Industry? —Based on the Dual Perspectives of Capital Allocation and Market Competition

摘要: 文章基于2013~2024年中国A股制造业上市公司数据，实证考察了人工智能应用对制造业企业岗位结构的影响机制。研究发现：首先，人工智能应用对制造业岗位结构呈现显著的双重影响，在替代低技能岗位的同时促进高技能岗位占比提升；其次，资本配置在人工智能影响就业结构的过程中发挥关键中介作用，能够强化对低技能岗位的替代效应，同时增强对高技能岗位的创造效应；再次，市场竞争程度对上述路径具有差异化调节作用，竞争越弱(垄断性越强)，越强化“人工智能应用→资本配置→高技能岗位”路径，而对低技能岗位路径的调节效应不显著。研究揭示了人工智能影响就业结构的微观机制，为理解技术冲击下的劳动力资源配置提供了新的理论视角，并为推动人工智能时代的就业转型提供了政策启示。

Abstract: Based on data from Chinese A-share manufacturing listed companies from 2013 to 2024, this study empirically examines the mechanism through which artificial intelligence applications affect the job structure of manufacturing enterprises. The findings indicate, first, that AI applications have a significant dual impact on the job structure in manufacturing, replacing low-skilled positions while increasing the proportion of high-skilled positions. Second, capital allocation plays a key mediating role in the process of AI influencing employment structure, strengthening the substitution effect on low-skilled positions and enhancing the creation effect on high-skilled positions. Third, the degree of market competition differentially moderates the pathways mentioned above: weaker competition (stronger monopoly) strengthens the pathway of “AI application → capital allocation → high-skilled jobs”, while its moderating effect on the low-skilled job pathway is not significant. This study reveals the micro-mechanisms through which AI affects employment structure, provides a new theoretical perspective for understanding labor resource allocation under technological shocks, and offers policy insights for promoting employment transformation in the era of artificial intelligence.