湖南省电子商务发展影响因素分析——基于2013~2022年时间序列数据

Analysis of Influencing Factors on E-Commerce Development in Hunan Province—Based on Time-Series Data from 2013 to 2022

摘要: 基于湖南省跨境电商时间序列数据，本文构建涵盖规模指数、支持指数、潜力指数的多维度评价指标体系，运用熵值法测度湖南省跨境电商发展水平，并通过多元线性回归模型实证检验其核心影响因素。研究发现，湖南省跨境电商发展水平呈持续快速增长趋势，实现了从起步培育到规模扩张的跨越式发展；各维度指数增长特征分化显著，规模指数受外部环境冲击呈波动扩张态势，支持指数为产业发展提供稳定的基础支撑，潜力指数是拉动跨境电商发展的核心增长动能。实证结果表明，长途光缆线路长度、互联网普及率、电子商务采购额、电子商务销售额、快递营业网点数量、出口总额及进口总额，均对湖南省跨境电商发展具有显著正向驱动作用，其中出口总额是驱动产业发展的核心动力。最后从优化物流与数字基础设施、推动内外贸电商融合发展、培育跨境电商进口新业态等方面提出针对性建议，为湖南省跨境电商高质量发展提供实证参考。

Abstract: Based on the time-series data of cross-border e-commerce in Hunan Province, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional evaluation index system covering scale index, support index and potential index, measures the development level of cross-border e-commerce in Hunan Province by the entropy method, and empirically tests the core influencing factors through a multiple linear regression model. The study finds that the development level of cross-border e-commerce in Hunan Province shows a sustained and rapid growth trend, realizing a leapfrog development from initial cultivation to scale expansion. The growth characteristics of each dimensional index are significantly differentiated: the scale index expands with fluctuations under the impact of external environment, the support index provides stable basic support for industrial development, and the potential index acts as the core growth driver for the development of cross-border e-commerce. The empirical results show that the length of long-distance optical cable lines, internet penetration rate, e-commerce procurement volume, e-commerce sales volume, number of express delivery outlets, total export volume and total import volume all have significant positive driving effects on the development of cross-border e-commerce in Hunan Province, among which total export volume is the core driving force for industrial development. Finally, targeted suggestions are put forward from optimizing logistics and digital infrastructure, promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade e-commerce, and fostering new formats of cross-border e-commerce import, so as to provide empirical references for the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce in Hunan Province.