从“压力叙事”到“赋能治理”：“十五五”时期中国人口老龄化的结构性转型与战略重构

From “Pressure Narrative” to “Empowerment Governance”: Structural Transformation and Strategic Reconstruction of China’s Population Aging during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

摘要: “十五五”时期是中国人口发展从增量扩张转向减量治理、老龄化从中度迈向重度的关键转折期。既有研究多聚焦于老龄化的负面经济冲击，形成了以“风险管控”为核心的压力叙事。本文系统整合最新研究成果，提出从“压力叙事”向“赋能治理”的范式重构。研究发现，“十五五”期间中国面临人口总量缓降、老龄化加速、抚养比历史性反转等多重结构性压力，但压力之下也催生了银发经济集聚、老年人力资本提升等赋能契机。本文构建了“赋能治理”的理论框架，从经济、社会、空间、认知四个维度阐述战略重构路径，为积极应对人口老龄化提供更具建设性的理论视角。

Abstract: The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical turning point in China’s population development, as it shifts from quantitative expansion to management of decline, and as aging progresses from moderate to severe. Existing studies have largely focused on the negative economic impacts of aging, forming a narrative centered on “risk control”. This paper systematically integrates the latest research findings and proposes a paradigm reconstruction from “pressure narrative” to “empowering governance”. The study finds that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China faces multiple structural pressures, including a gradual decline in total population, accelerated aging, and a historical reversal of the dependency ratio. However, under these pressures, opportunities for empowerment also emerge, such as the agglomeration of the silver economy and enhancement of elderly human capital. This paper constructs a theoretical framework of “empowering governance”, elaborating strategic reconstruction paths from four dimensions: economic, social, spatial, and cognitive, providing a more constructive theoretical perspective for actively addressing population aging.